The first GOP debate has arrived, bringing Republican hopefuls to the Midwest as they confront each other for the first time ahead of the 2024 election.
Republican candidates are slated to take the stage Wednesday at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee for the first of three currently scheduled debates.
The first GOP primary voters will weigh in on the nomination when Iowa holds its Jan. 15 caucus, followed by other early states in February. The eventual nominee is expected to face President Joe Biden in November.
With less than five months until the Iowa caucuses jumpstart the GOP presidential nomination process, the debate is a critical opportunity for lower-polling candidates to introduce themselves to millions of voters, many of whom are just beginning to pay attention to the race.
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Here's a look at what to expect:
When is the Republican Debate?
Wednesday evening's debate is scheduled to begin at 8 p.m. local time.
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Who's in and who's out?
GOP front-runner and former president Donald Trump has already announced he will not attend the debate.
Trump supporters including Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene will be in Milwaukee. There are questions about how many of his campaign surrogates will be allowed into Fox News' spin room. The network has restricted their access unless they are the guests of another media organization.
Eight other candidates met the donor and polling qualifications to be onstage, according to the Republican National Committee.
Qualification requirements
In order to qualify for the debate, candidates must have filed with the Federal Election Commission, sign a pledge to not participate in any non-RNC debates and support the eventual Republican nominee, in addition to polling and donation prerequisites.
The polling and donation requirements are as follows:
- Prove to the RNC by Monday that they have polled above 1% since July in three national polls, or in two national polls and one poll from each of two different early primary states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina). The polls must meet RNC stated standards.
- Prove to the RNC by Monday they have attracted donations from at least 40,000 individuals, with at least 200 from each of 20 states or territories.
Who's in
The Florida governor has long been seen as Trump’s top rival, finishing a distant second to him in polls in early-voting states and in national polls as well, and raising an impressive amount of money.
But DeSantis’ campaign has struggled in recent weeks to live up to high expectations. He let go of more than one-third of his staff as federal filings showed his campaign was burning through cash at an unsustainable rate.
With Trump absent, DeSantis may be the primary target for others onstage. According to people familiar with DeSantis’ planning who were granted anonymity to discuss strategy, the campaign is preparing him for nonstop attacks.
DeSantis has been participating in debate-related question and answer sessions at least once a week, having brought in experienced debate strategist Brett O’Donnell to assist.
The South Carolina senator has been looking for a breakout moment. The first debate could be his chance.
A prolific fundraiser, Scott entered the summer with $21 million cash on hand.
In one debate-approved poll in Iowa, Scott joined Trump and DeSantis in reaching double digits. The senator has focused much of his campaign resources on the leadoff GOP voting state, which has a large number of white evangelical voters.
Scott is hitting the early-state campaign trail after the debate, traveling to New Hampshire, Iowa and his home state of South Carolina, where he has four stops planned on Monday.
She has blitzed early-voting states with campaign events, walking crowds through her successes ousting a longtime South Carolina lawmaker, then becoming the state’s first female and first minority governor. Also serving as Trump’s U.N. ambassador for about two years, Haley frequently cites her international experience, focusing on the threat China poses to the United States.
The only woman in the GOP race, Haley has said transgender students competing in sports is “the women’s issue of our time” and has drawn praise from a leading anti-abortion group, which called her “uniquely gifted at communicating from a pro-life woman’s perspective.”
Entering the race in February, Haley has brought in $15.6 million. Making no mention of plans to go on the attack while speaking to reporters in Iowa earlier this month, Haley did explain why she showed up to the state fair in a shirt that read, “Underestimate me, that’ll be fun.”
The biotech entrepreneur and author of “Woke, Inc.: Inside Corporate America’s Social Justice Scam” is an audience favorite at multi-candidate events and has polled well despite not being nationally known when he entered the race.
Ramaswamy’s campaign says he met the donor threshold earlier this year, but this summer he rolled out “Vivek’s Kitchen Cabinet” to boost his donor numbers even more by letting fundraisers keep 10% of what they bring in for his campaign.
As he pursues a whirlwind campaign schedule, Ramaswamy has done virtually no formal debate prep, according to a senior adviser granted anonymity to discuss campaign strategy. The adviser said he’ll spend the day before the debate playing tennis and spending time with family.
The former New Jersey governor opened his campaign by portraying himself as the only candidate ready to take on Trump. Christie called on the former president to “show up at the debates and defend his record,” calling him “a coward” if he doesn’t.
Last month, Christie — who kicked off his campaign in June — told CNN that he surpassed “40,000 unique donors in just 35 days.” He also has met the polling requirements.
Burgum, a wealthy former software entrepreneur now in his second term as North Dakota’s governor, has been using his fortune to boost his campaign.
He announced a program last month to give away $20 gift cards — “Biden Relief Cards,” hitting President Joe Biden’s handling of the economy — to as many as 50,000 people in exchange for $1 donations. Critics have questioned whether the offer violates campaign finance law.
Within about a week of launching that effort, Burgum announced he had surpassed the donor threshold. Ad blitzes in the early-voting states helped him meet the polling requirements.
However, Burgum may not be able to participate in Wednesday’s debate after he injured himself this week playing basketball and was taken to the emergency room.
Campaign spokesman Lance Trover said Wednesday that it was “unclear if he will be able to stand at the debate.” The injury, which occurred Tuesday while Burgum was playing with campaign staff, was first reported by CNN.
Trump’s vice president had met the polling threshold but struggled to amass a sufficient number of donors, raising the possibility he might not qualify for the first debate.
But on Aug. 8, Pence’s campaign announced that it had crossed the 40,000 donor threshold, and also that he had become the first candidate to formally submit his donor count to the RNC for verification.
An adviser who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal strategy said earlier this month that Pence had participated in roughly a half-dozen formal debate prep sessions to date, including at least one in which a campaign aide previously close to Trump is playing the part of the former president.
The former two-term Arkansas governor was the final candidate to meet the RNC’s qualifications. Satisfying the polling requirements but slowly working on passing the donor threshold, Hutchinson said Sunday on CNN that he had finally surpassed 40,000 unique donors.
Hutchinson is running in the mold of an old-school Republican and has differentiated himself from many of his GOP rivals in his willingness to criticize Trump. He posted pleas on Twitter for $1 donations to help secure his slot.WHO'S DECIDED NOT TO PARTICIPATE
The current GOP front-runner long ago satisfied the polling and donor requirements. But Trump has opted not to participate in Wednesday's debate — and potentially any others that may follow.
“The public knows who I am & what a successful Presidency I had,” Trump wrote on his social media site over the weekend. “I WILL THEREFORE NOT BE DOING THE DEBATES!”
His spokesman did not immediately clarify whether he plans to boycott every primary debate or just those that have currently been scheduled. Trump has also said that he would not sign the debate pledge.
He has floated a range of possible counterprogramming options, notably a competing interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who now has a program on X, the site formerly known as Twitter. The day after the debate, Trump is expected to go to Atlanta for booking on state racketeering charges over his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
Who's out
The Miami mayor told The Associated Press on Friday that he had qualified for the debate, but party officials disagreed. Senior RNC advisers who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share internal discussions said later that Suarez had not yet officially met the criteria, and Suarez was not among the candidates listed in the official on-stage lineup released Monday night.
Suarez has been one of the more creative candidates in his efforts to boost his donor numbers. He offered a chance to see Argentine soccer legend Lionel Messi’s debut as a player for Inter Miami, saying donors who gave $1 would be entered in a chance to get front-row tickets.
Still shy of the donor threshold, he took a page from Burgum’s playbook by offering a $20 “Bidenomics Relief Card” in return for $1 donations. A super political action committee supporting Suarez launched a sweepstakes for a chance at up to $15,000 in tuition, in exchange for a $1 donation to Suarez’s campaign.
The conservative radio host claimed Monday that he had met the debate qualifications, sharing the letter sent to debate director David Bossie and saying that Elder planned to arrive in Milwaukee Tuesday afternoon.
Following the RNC's announcement, Elder's campaign said it planned to sue the party “over their eleventh-hour attempt to keep him off the Debate stage, even after he completed — and in some cases, exceeded — all of the requirements."
Johnson, a wealthy but largely unknown businessman from Michigan, said on social media earlier this month he had notched 40,000 donors. Last week, he said he had satisfied other qualifications and on Monday posted a photo of his signed debate pledge.
But after the RNC's list was announced, without him, Johnson took his dissatisfaction to social media, writing that “the debate process has been corrupted, plain and simple” and adding that he would be in Milwaukee on Wednesday “and will have more to say” about the process on Tuesday.
The former Texas congressman — the last candidate to enter the race, on June 22 — has said repeatedly that he would not pledge to support the eventual GOP nominee, a stance that would keep him off the stage even if he had the qualifying polling numbers.
What to watch for
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a distant second to Trump in many polls, is betting that a strong showing will cement his status as the strongest alternative to the former president despite his many stumbles. DeSantis' team sees rising newcomer Vivek Ramaswamy, a 38-year-old entrepreneur, as a threat, while South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence have positioned themselves to compete.
The debate also features a handful of aggressive Trump critics led by former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, whose anti-Trump message is the centerpiece of his campaign despite the former president's continued popularity in the party. Other lesser-known candidates including North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson are largely trying to introduce themselves to voters across the country to help qualify for the second debate.
“Everybody needs to be prepared for all-out war as usual,” said longtime Republican strategist Stephan Thompson.
Trump's undeniable presence
Trump is the central issue in today's Republican Party, which means he will be the central issue in the debate even in absentia. To this point, most of his rivals have tiptoed around the former president, unwilling to raise serious concerns about his mounting legal baggage, his lies about the 2020 election and his divisive leadership style.
It may be more difficult for the candidates to avoid tough questions about Trump's many shortcomings on Wednesday night, especially with outspoken critics like Christie pressing the issue. DeSantis' approach is particularly significant given his struggle to take advantage of Trump's shortcomings so far, although DeSantis' allies put out a memo last week actually encouraging him to defend the former president during the debate.
Few Republican rivals, if any, have successfully navigated the delicate politics of Trump over the last eight years. They're about to be tested again under the brightest lights in presidential politics.
Abortion minefield
For much of the year, many Republican candidates have sidestepped specific questions about abortion and whether they would support a federal law outlawing the procedure nationwide. Whatever they say or don't say Wednesday night could have serious short- and long-term political consequences. And there are no easy answers.
Religious conservatives who wield tremendous influence in GOP primary elections — especially in the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses — strongly support a nationwide abortion ban. But the broader swath of voters who will ultimately decide the general election next fall overwhelmingly support abortion rights.
Look no further than DeSantis for evidence of the delicate dance on abortion. Just four months ago, the Florida governor signed into Florida law a ban on abortions at six weeks of pregnancy — before most women know they're pregnant. But he has largely avoided the issue on the campaign trail. Scott and Pence stand on the other side. Both have said they would sign a national abortion ban if elected. And Pence is planning to press the issue on the debate stage whether his rivals want him to or not. Democrats hope he does.
Break-out candidates
For some candidates, this presidential debate could be their last unless they can score a breakout moment. Pence in particular struggled to meet the fundraising thresholds to qualify for Wednesday's event. Hutchinson and Burgum barely met the 1% polling marks. That gives several candidates a big incentive to generate a viral moment that will be remembered — and replayed on social media and cable TV — over the coming weeks.
Most will have prepared lines designed to do just that, although it's not easy to deliver such lines without sounding overly scripted. That won't stop them from trying. The next debate is scheduled for Sept. 27 at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. Trump has already said he would not participate in that one either. And given rising polling and fundraising thresholds, it would be a surprise to see all eight candidates on stage again.
More things to watch here.
Why Wisconsin?
Republicans chose Milwaukee for the first debate and for the national convention in just 11 months largely because of Wisconsin’s well-earned status as a swing state. Four of the past six presidential elections have been decided by less than a percentage point here, with Donald Trump winning narrowly in 2016 before losing by a similar margin in 2020.
Wisconsin will be one of the biggest toss-ups in the general election. It's a distinction held by a shrinking but often-shifting number of places, as former swing states like Ohio and Florida become more reliably Republican and Virginia and Colorado more Democratic. That leaves Wisconsin along with Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Nevada as among the most competitive states that could decide the presidency.
In a sign of Wisconsin's importance, Biden traveled to Milwaukee last week to talk up his work to create manufacturing jobs. On Sunday, his campaign announced it is spending $25 million to run ads in seven states, including Wisconsin, to counter Republicans as they debate. The ad buy includes the campaign’s first investments in Hispanic and Black media, the campaign said.
Wisconsin's status as a top electoral target dates back more than 20 years.
