Why Bears shouldn't fire Nagy, Pace after this season originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago
As the Bears’ losing streak grew from one game, to three, and now all the way to five games, calls for the Bears to fire Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace have also grown from whispers, to a light buzz, and now a full-fledged cacophony of sports radio outbursts and caps-lock tweets.
But does it really make sense for the Bears to bail on their head coach and GM just three years into their time together? Sunday Night Football’s Mike Tirico thinks it’s premature to start discussing heavy-handed changes like that.
“I would be more patient, but I’m not living there,” Tirico told NBC Sports Chicago. “Matt, wasn’t he the Coach of the Year two years ago? He was, right? So you’re thinking: GMs get two coaches, do coaches get two quarterbacks?
“Before you make a coaching change and a GM change, you have to ask yourself this question: How is the personnel? Does the personnel stack up with other personnel across the league? How’s the salary cap situation? Because next year’s going to be a tough cap year, there won’t be as much cap money. The third one is, where are you finding those two new guys to be the GM and the coach, in this environment, in this time. If you’re doing it, and somebody else in the division is doing it, and Atlanta’s doing it… Houston’s already in the market. You’re the sixth team out there trying to do it. Are there really six GMs and coaches who are better than the guys you have here?”
Let’s start by answering the first question. On the defensive side of the ball, the Bears field one of the league’s most fearsome rosters, and Pace deserves credit for building that roster up from practically nothing. Back in 2014一 the year before Pace took over一 the top-five leaders in tackles for the Bears were Ryan Mundy, Jonathan Bostic, Kyle Fuller, Christian Jones and a 32-year-old Jared Allen. They gave up over 50 points in two consecutive games, even with a bye week in the middle.
The defense was one of the worst in the league from a talent standpoint and Pace turned it around in under five seasons through savvy draft picks (Roquan Smith, Eddie Jackson, Eddie Goldman), great free agent signings (Akiem Hicks, Danny Trevathan) and one blockbuster trade (Khalil Mack). There have been some duds too (Robert Quinn, Pernell McPhee to a degree), but hey, nobody’s perfect. All in all, Pace’s complete defensive makeover has been incredible.
Flip over to the other side of the ball however, and it’s pretty much the opposite story. With the incredible investment Pace has poured into the defense, the offense has regressed. Here, Pace has missed with his key additions (Mitchell Trubisky, Adam Shaheen, Kevin White, Hroniss Grasu, Riley Ridley, Markus Wheaton, Trey Burton, the list goes on and on), far more than he’s hit (Allen Robinson, Cody Whitehair, James Daniels, Tarik Cohen).
For whatever reason, Pace hasn’t found the same success evaluating talent on offense that he has on defense. But since he’s already effectively overhauled one part of the roster it stands to reason he could do it again if given the chance.
Moving to Tirico’s second question, let’s say the Bears do decide to part ways with Pace and Nagy. Whoever takes over is going to have a tough time reshaping the roster to their liking as the Bears have just over $2.5 million in cap space next season, according to Spotrac. The team could save around $20 million by cutting Charles Leno, Bobby Massie and Jimmy Graham, according to Spotrac, but then whoever comes in will have to use that money to replace two starting offensive linemen and the Bears’ top red zone option this season.
More savings could be found if the team trades Akiem Hicks, but without him on the line the Bears defense seems to lack its teeth. Just look at how the Packers ran all over the Bears on Sunday with Hicks on the sideline. There are other minor moves the front office could make to free up cap space, but nothing to save significant cash. Any way you slice it, a hypothetical new GM would have a tough time improving the offense with such little wiggle room.
If the Bears manage to lose out the rest of the season, then this is a different discussion. But if the team can get back on track over their final five games then Tirico says Bears ownership and Ted Phillips will have some tough decisions to make.
“If you’re at 8-8, 9-7, that’s going to be a hard conversation to have,” Tirico told NBC Sports Chicago. “I would lean towards one more year, but I’m always more patient. I think ownership gets too quick sometimes with these decisions. Three years is hard to pull a plug on a football team when you’re trying to flip a franchise and build an organization.”
Never mind the fact that if the Bears finish 8-8 or 9-7, they’ll still have never had a losing season under Matt Nagy. Not too long ago they fired Lovie Smith after a winning season. That maneuver led to losing seasons in four out of the next five years before Nagy took over and turned things around again.
A similar story is playing out across the division in Detroit. The Lions let Jim Caldwell go after four years with a 36-28 record, plus an 0-2 record in the playoffs. But less than three years later they’re looking for a new head coach again as Matt Patricia led Detroit to a pitiful 13-29-1 record.
Winning in the NFL is hard, and resetting the organization has just as good of a chance of setting things back as it does of jump starting things.
“Think about the… Steelers and Ravens game,” Tirico said. “Think about those coaches for a second. Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh are over a decade in those jobs. In the same division! Usually one guy can last forever in the same division. Just look at Bill Belichick and watch the other three teams change coaches like socks. But in the same division, they’ve stayed. Why? Foundation of how to build a franchise. Consistency of picking players to fit within a system. Consistency of coaching.”
While the longest-tenured coaches have gotten out to quick success for the most part, the only coach who can truly claim success each and every year is Belichick. Even he is being put to the test this season without Tom Brady under center.
Tomlin won a Super Bowl in his second season, lost a Super Bowl two years after that, but also missed the playoffs three times from 2009-2013. Harbaugh took the Ravens to the AFC Championship game in his first season in 2008. Since then he’s only reached the conference title game twice, including his Super Bowl title campaign in 2012. Andy Reid, Nagy’s mentor, made the playoffs five of his first six years in Kansas City, but he wasn’t able to break through for a Super Bowl win until he had Patrick Mahomes.
None of is meant as an excuse for how bad the Bears have looked in the midst of their five-game losing streak. Nagy and Pace have their fingerprints all over the offense, and the performances have ranged from bad to dreadful. But it’s also important to remember this is a season unlike any other. Practice is different, personnel groups shift constantly as players move on and off the COVID-19 reserve list, and games simply aren’t the same without fans in the stands.
Lots of work clearly needs to be done to get the Bears back on track this season and beyond. But like Tirico says, moving on from Nagy and Pace after only three years together may be a little hasty.
