Winter has been quiet so far with only a few days of accumulating snow, but over the past few days long-range forecast models have been pointing to a well-organized winter storm next week.
This storm has the possibility to bring the first widespread accumulating snow of the season to the Chicago area, or an ugly mix of rain and melting snow. Either way it could disrupt travel and be accompanied by strong winds.
Before we go any further, it’s important to note that this is still a long way out.
Things will change, so details won’t be worked out until we get closer. That being said, the long-range forecast models have been surprisingly consistent with the development of this storm — even though it’s not expected to reach the West Coast until Saturday.
The jet stream is expected to dig south over the western U.S. over the weekend, leading to the development of a strong area of low pressure across New Mexico and Texas. That low pressure is expected to turn northeast and track up the Ohio River Valley.
The current model projection puts Chicago right on the edge of rain and snow, meaning mostly rain south of the city and across Indiana, and heavy snow to the west.
The ECMWF (Euro) model has a more westerly track, meaning the precipitation starts out as snow in Chicago in the morning, but turns into a slushy mix and rain later in the day.
The GFS model shifts the upper low in the jet stream a little farther east. This would mean a colder “all snow” event for Chicago.
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This could disrupt travel beginning Tuesday morning through Tuesday night. Conditions should improve Wednesday, but it gets colder following this storm with highs only expected to be the 20s for the first time since the end of November.
The storm team will be monitoring this storm every day as we get closer so check back for updates.
