Chicago-area drought conditions expected to continue. Here's what we know

With the entire Chicago area at either a “moderate” or “severe” drought, forecasts are calling for continued dry conditions in coming days, with the next chance of rain looming over the coming weekend.

According to forecast models from the National Weather Service, the next chance of rain won’t enter the mix until Saturday evening at the earliest, when a low-pressure system potentially clears out the high-pressure dome that’s built over the Midwest in recent weeks.

As a result, warm temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s remain in the forecast, with gusty winds potentially causing some concern for brush fires on Tuesday and Wednesday.

This represents a continuation of the conditions seen in the Midwest since early May. The U.S. Drought Monitor, which updates every Thursday, has all of northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana is at least at a moderate drought, but areas including Cook, LaSalle and Kankakee counties in Illinois, as well as Lake, Porter, Newton and Jasper counties in Indiana, are at a severe drought level.

An ongoing blocking pattern has prevented moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, which generally fuels rain events during the spring and can help to cause severe weather, from entering the upper Midwest, leading to challenging conditions for farmers, who rely on spring rains to increase their yields.

It’s not just crops, either. Livestock are also being impacted, as farmers are having to supplement their animals’ diets because there isn’t enough quality vegetation to feed on.

Residents are also feeling the impact, as sensitive vegetation has been stressed in recent weeks. Lawns are also turning brown, leading to increased need for water in the region.

The lack of severe weather, which can help to bolster low rainfall totals, has also had an impact. According to the NWS, the region has had one severe weather warning in the month of June, when typically the region sees an average of 40 in what is generally the service’s busiest month.  

In addition to lower soil moisture totals, the southern Great Lakes and the Corn Belt are seeing big dips in the water levels of rivers and streams. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, stream flows are in the 10^th percentile historically, only exacerbating the ongoing conditions.