The Bears have the chance to secure a unicorn outcome by this season's end.
Can the Bears make the playoffs and secure the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL draft? The answer, in short, is yes.
The Bears have a near lock on the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL draft, thanks to the Carolina Panthers' league-worst 1-12 record at this writing. They have a two-game buffer on the Patriots and the Commanders, each with three wins.
According to ESPN, that gives the Bears a 95% chance of earning the top pick in the draft. As long as the Panthers lose at least two of their next four games --- or a variety of scenarios including wins from both the Patriots and Commanders --- the Bears will have that first pick in their hands. Easy peasy.
As for the playoffs, that's where things get more complicated. The New York Times set their chances at a measly 8% to make the postseason.
"So you're saying there's a chance?"
If the Bears win their last four games of the season, their odds of making the playoffs shoot to 61%, according to The New York Times' calculations. In a nutshell, here's what needs to happen for the Bears to make the playoffs in the event they win out their last four games of the season.
- Vikings lose at least three of their final four games
- Seahawks and Rams each lose at least twice
- Two of Buccaneers, Falcons, or Saints lose at least two of their last four games
Know this, a loss in any game for the Bears dramatically diminishes their odds.
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If the Bears lose to the Packers in Week 18, their odds will sit at 1% to make the playoffs. If they finish 3-1, with that loss to the Atlanta Falcons, their odds would be 5% to make the postseason.
Let's narrow that down to next week's contest against the Browns. Lose that game and the Bears have a 5% chance to make it. Win that game and their odds boost to 15% of earning a playoff spot.
It's a tight race for the NFC Wild Card. Currently, the Packers have a grip on the final Wild Card spot in the NFC playoff picture. Their record is 6-7 right now. Four teams behind the Packers are 6-7. And two teams, one including the Bears, are 5-8. Even the Commanders and Cardinals, who each have four and three wins, respectively, aren't yet eliminated.
The Detroit Lions have a firm grip on the NFC North division, as it stands. They have a two-game lead over the second-place Minnesota Vikings, holding a 9-4 record at this writing. This upcoming Week 15 marks the first week they can clinch a playoff spot.
Here's who the Bears face in the final four weeks and need to defeat to have a chance at the playoffs.
- Week 15: @ Cleveland Browns
- Week 16: vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Week 17: vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Week 18: @ Green Bay Packers
Can the Bears pull off the unthinkable? Stay tuned, as the final four weeks of NFL football are upon us.
