Chicago Mayoral Election 2023

New Chicago Mayoral Poll Shows Vallas With Lead on Johnson as Voters Over 50 Favor His Campaign

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Polling data continues to show a tight race between Paul Vallas and Brandon Johnson in the battle to become Chicago's next mayor, with Vallas holding a slim lead in a new survey released this week.

That poll, conducted by WGN-TV in partnership with Emerson College and The Hill, showed Vallas with a 46-41% lead over his rival, with 13% of voters saying that they are undecided in the race.

The poll, which surveyed 1,000 "very likely" voters between March 23-25, had a margin of error of +/- 3%.

Crime continues to be the top issue among voters, according to the poll, with younger voters trending toward Johnson and Vallas having a commanding lead among voters age 50 and older.

The results track with polling conducted last week by Victory Research, which showed former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas still holding a small lead over Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson, but that lead shrank.

According to the research group, Vallas saw his potential lead shrink from six points, the number reported in a poll conducted earlier in March, down to two points.

Also notable is the percentage of respondents who said they were undecided. That number also dropped from 16% to 9.6%, according to the poll. In addition, respondents were asked if their "mind is made up" or if they could change their answers before April 4 and 15.5% said they could still change their mind.

The poll included responses from more than 800 likely voters in the runoff election, and it has a margin of error of 3.45%.

According to Victory Research, the results showed Johnson leading slightly among female voters, a group Vallas had formerly led in. Geographically, Vallas led with voters on the Northwest and Southwest Sides, while Johnson held "a wide lead" on the South and West Sides. But the north lakefront remains in play for both.

An Updated Endorsement Guide to the 2023 Chicago Mayoral Election

Neither candidate has secured a majority in Hispanic voters as well, according to the results, though Vallas appears to hold a wide lead amongst white voters while Johnson leads among Black voters.

Vallas and Johnson advanced to the runoff election out of a field of nine candidates, including incumbent Mayor Lori Lightfoot. According to data from the Chicago Board of Elections, Vallas received 32.9 percent of the first-round vote, while Johnson won 21.63 percent of the vote.

The pair continue to rack up endorsements in the race, including some high-profile names.

Johnson has so far seen recent endorsements from former opponent Jesus "Chuy" Garcia, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Sen. Bernie Sanders, among others.

Vallas has secured endorsements from former Illinois Secretary of State Jesse White, former Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn and former opponent Willie Wilson, among others.

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