Bears' 'easy' path to 8-8 questions Pace, Nagy's future originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago
The combined record of the teams the Bears lost to on their current five-game losing streak is 37-18. The Rams, Saints, Titans, Vikings and Packers have a .672 winning percentage and all five very well could end up in the playoffs.
And looking at DVOA – an advanced stat that does a better job explaining how strong a team is beyond its record – all five of those teams are pretty good, too. The Saints are No. 1 in DVOA entering Week 13; the Packers No. 5, Rams No. 6, Titans No. 12 and Vikings No. 15.
I’m not laying out any of this to excuse the Bears for losing five games to teams that are better than them. The manner in which those losses have happened is embarrassing, a word that’s been thrown around Halas Hall a lot this week.
But what if the Bears are just an okay team that will struggle to win games against opponents better than they are?
That gets the Bears to 7-9. Maybe 8-8. And with some luck? 9-7.
And are Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace really getting fired if they go 8-8?
Starting this weekend with the Detroit Lions, the Bears have what looks like an “easy” four-game stretch – one in which they should win two or three games:
Week 13: vs. Detroit (4-7, 24th in DVOA)
Week 14: vs. Houston (4-7, 17th in DVOA)
Week 15: @ Minnesota (5-6, 15th in DVOA)
Week 16: @ Jacksonville (1-10, 29th in DVOA)
"The main focus for everybody right now in this building is to go 1-0," safety Eddie Jackson said. "Let’s get one win. We know when we get that one win, then everything is starting to change, emotions start to change, guys hold their head up and just continue to get better.”
If the Bears take care of the Lions this weekend – meaning Nagy improves to 6-0 against Detroit as a head coach – the tipping point game here will be against Deshaun Watson and the Texans. Win that game, and all it’ll take to get to 8-8 is a win over the woebegone Jaguars (who might be starting Mike Glennon!). Lose and we’re talking about 7-9.
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This presumes the Bears don’t beat the Vikings. Minnesota is trending in the right direction – their young defense has coalesced over the last few weeks and rookie Justin Jefferson looks like a star receiver in the making – while the Bears, of course, are not.
The question here is what it would take for Pace and Nagy to keep their jobs in 2021, likely with a playoffs-or-bust mandate. Three consecutive non-losing seasons wasn’t enough to save Lovie Smith’s job in 2012.
But a Pace-Nagy run of 12-4, 8-8 and 8-8 would be only the Bears’ fourth three-year stretch without a year below .500 in the Super Bowl era (1983-1985, 1986-1988, 2010-2013).
The Bears, of course, should aspire to be better than being okay with 8-8.
First, this year’s team has to get there. And then we’ll find out just how okay with 8-8 ownership really is.
