What's in Store for Chicago This Winter, According to Latest NOAA Winter Outlook - NBC Chicago

What's in Store for Chicago This Winter, According to Latest NOAA Winter Outlook

The latest projections were released Thursday for December through February

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    NEWSLETTERS

    Breakdown: What NOAA's Winter Outlook Means for Chicago

    Andy Avalos explains what the latest winter outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration means for Chicago. 

    (Published Friday, Oct. 19, 2018)

    What to Know

    • The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a mild season for the majority of the United States.

    • The Climate Prediction Center notes that even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are likely.

    • NOAA also expects that El Nino will have a 70 to 75 percent chance of developing, bringing precipitation to southern states.

    There's some good news for Chicago in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Winter Outlook.

    Above-average temperatures will likely be paired with drier-than-average conditions for the area, making way for a warmer and drier winter, according to the outlook for December through February released Thursday. 

    The Climate Prediction Center notes that even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are likely to occur. Its seasonal outlooks do not project snowfall accumulations, though; those typically are not predictable more than a week in advance.

    Seasonal forecasts can be particularly challenging to predict, meteorologists say. 

    The Farmer's Almanac and Old Farmer's Almanac have also released differing winter predictions. The Farmer's Almanac called for "biting cold" and snowy conditions in Chicago while the Old Farmer's Almanac predicted above-normal temperatures and above-normal levels of precipitation. 

    NOAA also expects that El Nino will have a 70 to 75 percent chance of developing.

    El Nino is an oceanic climate interaction linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

    During the winter, typical El Nino conditions in the United States can include above-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in the North.

    Because El Nino is foreseen as developing, NOAA predicts that northern Florida and southern Georgia have the greatest odds for above-average precipitation this winter, while wetter-than-average conditions are also predicted for the southern United States up into the Mid-Atlantic.

    While some locations will see much precipitation, others will experience drought conditions, according to researchers, who foresee this to be the case across portions of the Southwest, Southern California, the central Great Basin, central Rockies, Northern Plains and parts of the Pacific Northwest.

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    Drought conditions are anticipated to improve in areas throughout Arizona and New Mexico, parts of Utah and Colorado, as well as the coastal Pacific Northwest and Central Plains.

    The Climate Prediction Center updates its three-month outlook each month, with the next expected update scheduled for Nov. 15.

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