Illinois’ Congressional contingent is one of the House Democrats’ largest coalitions, but could Republicans eat into that majority in the 2024 election cycle?
As things stand, Illinois is represented by 17 representatives in the House. Of those, 14 are Democrats and three are Republicans.
All 17 incumbents are running for reelection in Illinois for 2024, but could any of them lose their seats in November?
Here are some of the races that will bear monitoring on the national level as the two parties compete for control of the House.
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Illinois 6
A redrawn map made the 2022 race a more comfortable one for Casten, as he defeated Orland Park Mayor Keith Pekau by nearly 9% of the vote.
This time around, Casten will actually have to face primary challenges from Charles Hughes and Mahnoor Ahmad, and if he prevails in the primary, then he would be in line to face Niki Conforti, a businesswoman and energy consultant from Chicago’s western suburbs.
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Most estimates believe Casten’s seat is safe, including Cook Political Report.
Illinois 13
Incumbent Rep. Nikki Budzinski is running unopposed in the 2024 primary, but she will face Republican opposition in November as Thomas Clatterbuck and Joshua Loyd vie for the GOP nomination.
Budzinski replaced former Rep. Rodney Davis, who was redistricted into the 15th district for the 2022 election and lost to fellow incumbent Rep. Mary Miller.
The newly-drawn district will likely be safe for Budzinski, who defeated Republican Regan Deering by more than 13% of the vote in 2022, but is still a race worth monitoring in coming months.
Illinois 14
Rep. Lauren Underwood won a competitive race when she unseated former Rep. Randy Hultgren in 2018, and then edged out Jim Oberweis in the 2020 campaign.
Now, her district is considered to be a safer potential hold for Democrats, but eyes on are on the GOP primary, pitting Charlie Kim against James Marter.
Illinois 17
Cook Political Report has 16 of Illinois’ 17 Congressional races listed as being safely in the hands of their incumbents, but freshman Rep. Eric Sorensen could face a tough challenge in keeping his seat this November, according to the publication.
Sorensen, well-known for his work as a TV meteorologist, defeated Esther Joy King in the race to unseat former Rep. Cheri Bustos in 2022, but will face competition this November from either Scott Crowl or Joseph McGraw, who will battle it out on the GOP primary ballot.
Currently, the GOP holds a six-seat majority in the House of Representatives, with three vacancies among the 435 seats in the chamber.
Democrats would need to pick up at least five seats in order to take back control of the House, while Republicans need just two seats to take back control of the Senate, or one additional seat if former President Donald Trump is elected back to the Oval Office.
This year’s map has been seen as more favorable for Republicans in their quest to retake control of the Senate, with Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin opting not to seek reelection in West Virginia.
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is also declining to seek reelection in Arizona, adding that to the list of potential toss-up states in play during this election cycle.
Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown and Montana Sen. Jon Tester also face tough reelection fights for the Democratic party during the coming cycle.
