While former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas appears to have the momentum to punch a ticket into a run-off for the mayoral election next week, new data suggests a heated three-way battle for the second spot.
The poll, conducted by M3 Strategies earlier this week, shows Vallas ahead with 32% of the vote, but the next three candidates are well within striking distance of a second-place finish, and a spot in an April 4 runoff.
Here are the top-five finishers in that poll:
Paul Vallas – 32%
Brandon Johnson – 18%
Lori Lightfoot – 13.6%
Jesús “Chuy” García – 11.6%
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Willie Wilson – 6.4%
The two key numbers in that poll are the margin of error, which stands at 4.6%, and the undecided voters, which comprised 14% of respondents.
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The poll was conducted among 450 “likely” voters on Feb. 20 and 21, according to officials.
Johnson may have a 4.4% lead on Lightfoot in that polling, but it’s still within the margin of error, with García close behind.
When undecided voters were compelled to choose a candidate in the race, it tightened even more. Johnson saw his vote share rise to 20%, but his lead over Lightfoot narrowed, as she rose to 18%. García also saw gains, moving up to 13%.
The polling does show strong gains for Johnson, who was hovering around 3% of the tally in an M3 poll conducted earlier this winter. It also illustrates that Lightfoot and García could still have a realistic path into a runoff, though they will have work to do in winning over undecided voters.
Matt Podogorski says that the polling reveals what many in the Chicago political establishment already recognize: that the battle for second place is going to come down to the wire.
“Statistically, they’re all close enough to say that this is an open game,” he said.
Another key element of the race is the role of mail-in voting. Already the returned ballots have well outpaced the number of mail-in ballots returned in the entirety of the 2019 election, and though the Chicago Board of Elections says that any of those votes cast by Feb. 27 will be included in the initial election returns on Tuesday, there could still be tens of thousands of outstanding mail-in ballots that will need to be counted, and every vote will count in a razor-tight race.
Under Chicago law, ballots must be postmarked by Feb. 28, but as long as they are received by the CBOE by March 14, they can be counted in the final tally.
Couple that with the fact that any candidate within 5% of second place can request a recount, and you have the recipe for a final tally that may not be available for several days after the vote takes place on Tuesday.
“We could have as much as 10% of the votes not counted when we go to bed on election night,” Podogorski said.
If no candidate receives a majority of the vote on election night, the top two vote-getters will advance to a winner-take-all runoff on April 4.
The last two Chicago mayoral elections have gone to runoffs, with Rahm Emanuel defeating García in 2015 and Lightfoot defeating Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle in 2019.
