‘Flash Drought' Could Occur in Illinois, Indiana in Coming Weeks

While the sunny and warm conditions will be perfect for any Memorial Day weekend gatherings and events, parts of the Chicago area could soon see a “flash drought” after one of the driest months of May on record.

According to the National Weather Service, parts of the Chicago metropolitan area, especially in the western and southern parts of the city and suburbs, have not seen an “appreciable rainfall” since early April, and as a result, there are growing concerns that a drought could soon take hold.

Officials cited measurements of soil moisture at four inches and eight inches into the ground, as well as the streamflow rates of area rivers, in issuing an alert that a “flash drought” could potentially be imminent.

According to officials, a flash drought occurs when dry conditions in soil and waterways rapidly intensify. That can be triggered when precipitation rates drop, as well as when temperatures remain above-normal for extended periods of time.

The former situation is the driving force this time around, with the last significant rainfall in Chicago occurring on May 8. Not every part of the metro area saw that kind of rainfall as that system moved through the region, however.

Officials say precipitation deficits are running at 3-to-5 inches and are increasing in western, central, and southern portions of the metro area.

Even other parts of Illinois and Indiana that have seen rain recently are seeing abnormally-dry conditions, according to officials.

If no rain falls by the end of the month, May 2023 will be the second-driest month of May on record, eclipsed only by May 1992, according to NWS data.

As for relief from the drought conditions, there isn’t much in sight. In fact, no precipitation is in the forecast for the remainder of May, and the dry pattern could last into the first week of June.

Officials with NWS are warning residents to use caution with open flames and smoking materials during Memorial Day events.