Predicting Chicago winter can be tricky, but three recent forecasts for the area all seem to land on the same thing.
If their predictions hold true, it's going to be a snowy next few months in the Chicago area.
While most meteorologists caution against far-out predictions, citing a variety of factors that could dramatically alter a season's outcome, recent outlooks from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Farmer's Almanac and the Old Farmer's Almanac seem to agree that a wetter-than-normal, and maybe even snowier-than-normal, winter could be in store.
But they don't all agree on everything.
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Here's a breakdown of the winter predictions for the Chicago area so far:
NOAA
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it's likely going to be a wet winter in parts of the Midwest between December and February.
Local
According to NOAA's U.S Winter Outlook released Thursday, "wetter-than-average" conditions are predicted for the Great Lakes region, courtesy of La Niña -- a weather pattern that occurs in the Pacific Ocean guided by winds at the ocean's surface.
"In the winter of a La Niña year, these winds are much stronger than usual," NOAA says. "This makes the water in the Pacific Ocean near the equator a few degrees colder than it usually is. Even this small change in the ocean’s temperature can affect weather all over the world."
And while in the southern part of the U.S., La Niña's third-consecutive return brings drier-than-average conditions, for the Ohio Valley, the Great Lakes, the northern Rockies and the Pacific Northwest, it is predicted to bring more precipitation.
And if temperatures are cold enough, that means more snow.
So what are the temperatures predicted for winter? According to NOAA, the Midwest is likely to see a fairly typical season.
In other words: Not unusually warm, and not unusually cold.
According to the prediction, from Dec. 2022 through Feb. 2023, temperatures in the Chicago area and for much of Illinois are neither expected to be warmer-than-average, nor colder-than-average.
The western part of the state though may see some frostier days.
"Below-normal temperatures are favored from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the western Great Lakes and the Alaska Panhandle," NOAA says.
Old Farmer's Almanac
The Old Farmer’s Almanac, in its extended forecast for the upcoming winter season, called for a "tale of two winters" that will divide the country in two. And the Chicago area falls on just one side of that story.
According to this year’s forecast, the Chicago area falls under the "bone-chilling cold and loads of snow" category.
Parts of the upper Midwest, including the Chicago area and northwest Indiana, will potentially see “unreasonably cold and snowy” conditions this winter, the almanac predicts.
"Winter for much of the Midwest and along the East Coast is best described as 'Shivery & Snowy,' the prediction states. "The eastern half of the U.S. should brace for potentially record-breaking cold to define the season."
For the Chicago area, also known as the "lower lakes" region in the almanac - which encompasses parts of Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio and even up toward the East Coast - the coldest temperatures are expected between early December and late-January to mid-February, with the snowiest periods between late-November and early December and early to mid-January.
Farmer's Almanac
The Farmer's Almanac also calls for an unreasonable cold and snowy winter in Illinois.
"The big takeaway for our winter season forecast is that frigid temperatures should flow into many areas nationwide—especially in the North Central region, where readers will certainly be shaking and shivering!" the almanac states, adding that "winter will feel unreasonably cold for readers in the Great Lakes region, especially in January."
In addition to the frigid temps the almanac predicts the Great Lakes area will see "precipitation fall more as snow."
"Snow lovers will be happy in the North Central States as they will see a fair share of storminess during the winter season, which should mean plenty of snow for winter enthusiasts to enjoy (maybe even in time for a white Christmas?)," the almanac predicts.
