3 keys for Bears to upset Jetsscore prediction originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago
After back-to-back losses to the lowly Lions and Falcons, it’s hard to find a path to victory for the Bears against the Jets, who field one of the best defenses in the NFL. Add in Justin Fields’ shoulder injury and questionable game status, and things become even more bleak for the Bears. But upsets shock the league each week, and if the Bears can execute on these three keys, they’ll give themselves a chance to be unlikely underdog winners in Week 12.
MAKE MIKE WHITE UNCOMFORTABLE
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The Jets are going through quarterback uncertainty of their own, but for much different reasons. Zach Wilson一 who the Jets selected with the No. 2 overall pick last season, instead of Justin Fields一 has struggled mightily in his second year. Things came to a head last week, when the offense only scored three points, gained 44 net passing yards and averaged 2.1 yards/play total. After the game, Wilson didn’t take accountability for his role in the team’s loss, saying he didn’t believe he and the offense were holding back the defense. A few days later, head coach Robert Saleh benched Wilson, and made Mike White the starter and Joe Flacco the backup. White has been in the league since 2018, but he’s only played in five games. The majority of that work game last season, when White went 1-2 as a Jets starter. He’s had good showings (400 yds, three touchdowns) and bad showings (251 yards, four interceptions). If the Bears can disguise their defense well, and maybe show him something he’s never seen before, they may be able to induce some errors and create takeaways to give their offense extra opportunities.
HELP INTERIOR OFFENSIVE LINE
The Bears enter Week 12 tied for the league lead with 40 sacks allowed. Meanwhile the Jets defense enters the game tied for fourth in the NFL with 32 sacks. It’s a classic “strength vs. weakness” matchup that could give the Bears fits all day. The man who does most of the damage is defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, who’s got eight sacks in 10 games. Teven Jenkins is healthy enough to play on Sunday, so that will help, but the Bears have struggled on stunts and twists, so whoever’s playing QB for the Bears will likely have to deal with pressure up the middle. To combat that, the Bears can do a variety of things, even if it’s the less-mobile Trevor Siemian under center. To start, the team can lean on more outside zone runs with David Montgomery, or end-arounds with wide receivers to run away from Williams. The team can also use Montgomery to help block more than they have in the past. Montgomery has shown he’s the best pass-blocking half back, and should be on the field plenty since Khalil Herbert is on injured reserve. He could be the key to keeping the quarterback clean.
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CLEAN UP SPECIAL TEAMS
Last week, one big kickoff turned the tide of the Bears game. Justin Fields had just rushed for a touchdown to take a 10 point lead with just over four minutes left in the first half, but Cordarrelle Patterson took the ensuing kick to the house to shift the momentum, and the Falcons never looked back after that. Patterson is the most electric return man in today’s game, so the Bears won’t face as dynamic of a player again, but Braxton Berrios is very effective on special teams for the Jets. He’s not afraid to bring the ball out on kickoffs, and has 11, 20+ yard returns, tied for second-most in the league. His 330 total kickoff return yards rank eighth. Berrios is no slouch on punts either. He’s averaging 11 yards per return in that phase, which ranks ninth-best among players with at least five returns. When a team is facing adversity like the Bears are, they need to give themselves every advantage they can, and eliminate disadvantages. A lot of that happens in the kicking game.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION
The Jets defense is legit, and it may be too much for the Bears to overcome with either a fully healthy Trevor Siemian, or a limited Justin Fields. Meanwhile, the combo of a QB change plus taking on the porous Bears defense could be just what the doctor ordered for the Jets offense.
Jets: 23, Bears: 17
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