A new poll, conducted just days before Tuesday’s election, shows former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas expanding his lead in the city’s mayoral race, with three candidates still battling it out to determine who could finish second and force an April runoff. Political Reporter Mary Ann Ahern has a preview of tomorrow’s election.
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A new poll, conducted just days before Tuesday’s election, shows former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas expanding his lead in the city’s mayoral race, with three candidates still battling it out to determine who could finish second and force an April runoff.
The poll, conducted by Victory Research, also showed Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson edging out ahead of incumbent Mayor Lori Lightfoot, who is still well within striking distance as she looks to earn a second term.
Here are the top-five candidates according to the new poll:
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Paul Vallas – 26.8%
Brandon Johnson – 20.2%
Lori Lightfoot – 18.7%
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Jesús “Chuy” García – 15.6%
Willie Wilson – 11.4%
The poll was conducted Feb. 24-26, and was made up of 806 likely Chicago voters. The margin of error was 3.45%, according to Victory research.
According to Victory Research, Vallas has expanded his lead, with his vote total increasing by nearly 5%. Johnson also saw his vote tally increase by 4.1%, pushing him past Lightfoot in the race.
Lightfoot is still within the margin of error in the poll, with García just outside of that percentage.
Other polls have been indicative of a tightening race for second place, with Vallas in the lead in most polls. M3 Strategies released a poll Thursday that showed Vallas with 32% of the vote, well ahead of Johnson’s 18%. Lightfoot was in third at 13.6%, with García at 11.6%.
A full 14% of voters were undecided in the poll, according to researchers.
In all likelihood, the race for second place would be within the margin that could potentially trigger a recount. If no candidate reaches 50% in the election, the top two vote-getters would face off in an April 4 runoff election.
In addition to the possibility of a recount, which could occur if a candidate is within 5% of the second place spot, there is also the possibility that mail-in ballots could impact the outcome. According to the latest updates from the Board of Elections, just over 100,000 mail-in ballots have still yet to be submitted, and as long as those ballots are postmarked by Election Day and returned by March 14, they can still be accepted and counted.
In all, 131,806 ballots were cast at early voting sites prior to Election Day, and another 112,774 ballots were submitted via the mail. Those nearly 245,000 votes will be included in the initial count that the board will release after polls close at 7 p.m. Tuesday.
