Latest Ogden and Fry Poll Shows Rahm With 10-Point Lead - NBC Chicago
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Latest Ogden and Fry Poll Shows Rahm With 10-Point Lead

Emanuel sits 10 percentage points above Garcia, but the mayor needs to be above 50 percent to ensure a victory



    Latest Ogden and Fry Poll Shows Rahm With 10-Point Lead

    Mayor Rahm Emanuel's latest moves in his re-election campaign appear to have steered voters in his favor.

    The latest poll numbers show Emanuel with a comfortable lead over challenger Jesus "Chuy" Garcia, but the mayor remains shy of the majority of votes with just a few weeks to go until the runoff election April 7.

    Ogden and Fry released a poll Saturday that showed Emanuel with 47.1 percent of the vote and Garcia with 36.7 percent. The poll takes into account undecided voters as well, who came in at a high 16.2 percent.

    These undecided voters are key to winning the election, the poll makers noted. The conventional wisdom is that undecided voters usually do not break for a well-known incumbent, meaning Emanuel could still be in trouble, despite his lead.

    Garcia appears to hold about a 6 percent advantage when it comes to the undecided voters, according to Ogden and Fry. As the runoff election nears, Emanuel will once again need that 50 percent of the vote plus one in case the undecided voters lean toward Garcia.

    The Chicago Tribune released a poll Friday that showed Emanuel with a majority lead at 51 percent of voters questioned. Garcia came in at 37 percent, and only 11 percent said they were undecided.

    Ogden and Fry's previous polls showed Emanuel and Garcia in a dead heat, with both sitting well below 50 percent because of a high percentage of undecided voters.

    The latest Ogden and Fry poll was conducted with 957 "likely voters" and had a margin of error of +/- 3.23 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval.

    Watch Emanuel and Garcia battle it out at a live forum moderated by NBC Chicago's Carol Marin Monday night at 6 p.m.

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