Even though Chicago Cubs manager Joe Maddon won’t be watching Game 5 of the NLDS between the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers, countless Cubs fans will be keeping an eye on the proceedings as the Cubs’ next opponent is determined on Thursday night.
Of course, the big question on everyone’s mind is whether the Cubs would stand a better chance of beating the Mets or the Dodgers in the next round. The Cubs won’t have home field advantage against either team despite having a better record than both clubs (division winners get to open series at home over wild card teams), but is there anything else that would indicate that the team would have an easier time with one of the two potential opponents?
The 2015 season record would certainly point to the Mets as being the “easier” of the two teams for the Cubs. After all, the Cubs swept the season series against New York, winning all seven games the teams played. The Cubs also sported a below-.500 record against the Dodgers, splitting a four game series at Wrigley Field in May and losing two out of three games at Dodger Stadium in late August.
Despite that clear difference, there is one thing to keep in mind: the Cubs have not faced the Mets in the second half of the season when the Big Apple baseball club really took off. Their pitching staff is one of the deepest in baseball, with Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, and Matt Harvey all sporting excellent stats on the season. Their offense has also picked up significantly in recent months, with the acquisition of Yoenis Cespedes and the return of David Wright from injury boosting their scoring considerably.
As for the Dodgers, they are loaded with veterans with a slew of playoff experience like Adrian Gonzalez, and they also have the only 1-2 punch of starting pitchers that can seemingly match or exceed the one that the Cubs have. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke are both Cy Young candidates this year, and both have the capability to slow down the Cubs’ potent offense in a postseason setting.
That dominance is seemingly reflected in their performances against Cubs batters. Starlin Castro is a paltry 2-for-23 lifetime against Kershaw, and Anthony Rizzo only has three hits in 11 at-bats against the Dodgers’ ace. The numbers aren’t a lot better against Greinke, with Castro sporting a sub-.250 batting average and Rizzo picking up two hits in six career at-bats against the right-handed pitcher.
Kris Bryant also batted just .227 against the Dodgers this season, although he did slug three home runs (including one against Kershaw) against the team.
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On the opposite side of the ledger, the Cubs did somewhat better against the Mets at the plate this year. Bryant hit two home runs and batted .381 against the team in the seven games the clubs played against one another, and one of those long-balls came against deGrom. Rizzo batted .261 against the Mets this season, but he is a combined 3-for-10 against deGrom and Syndergaard lifetime, including two walks and a home run.
While the difference at the plate seems to favor a matchup with the Mets, the Cubs’ top pitchers also have a good track record against New York. Jake Arrieta went 2-0 against the Mets this season with a 1.13 ERA, walking just two batters and striking out 17. He also has a history of keeping Cespedes and Wright in check, retiring the duo in nine of their combined 10 at-bats against him.
Jon Lester also had a good year against the Mets, with a 2.08 ERA and a 1-0 record against New York this season. Cespedes is just 2-for-13 against Lester in his career, and Daniel Murphy is 1-for-6 lifetime against the Cubs’ lefty.
With both batters and pitchers seemingly poised to play better against the Mets, it would seem that they would be the ideal opponent. Add to that the fact that the Mets don’t have as many big-time hitters, and the fact that they will have to travel back across the country again to begin the series on Saturday at Citi Field after a late Game 5 in Los Angeles Thursday, and you have the recipe for a tired team that could drop one of the first two games at home and give the Cubs an opportunity to seize the momentum in the series.
