Trump Has a 3 Percent Chance of Winning Illinois: Report | NBC Chicago
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Trump Has a 3 Percent Chance of Winning Illinois: Report

According to a new political analysis, the divisive billionaire is expected to receive 37 percent of the vote in Illinois

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    AP
    AP

    Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has just a 3 percent chance of winning Illinois in November, according to political analysis website FiveThirtyEight.

    The site, whose editor editor-in-chief Nate Silver successfully predicted 49 of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election, used four recent polls to shape their analysis.

    Those polls show presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leading Trump from anywhere between 13 percent and 24 percent. According to the report, her odds of winning the Land of Lincoln sit at 97 percent.

    "Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state," the report said.

    The site predicts that Clinton will receive 56 percent of the vote in Illinois, while Trump will receive 37 percent. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is expected to receive roughly 7 percent of the vote.

    According to the same analysis, Trump only has a 20 percent chance of winning the presidency. Of the 538 electoral college votes that will be up for grabs in November, the site predicts Clinton will win 354, Trump will win 183 and Johnson will win 1. 

    Additionally, the report predicts that Clinton will win 49 percent of the popular vote, while Trump will take 42 percent. Johnson is predicted to win 8 percent.

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