Illinois 2014 Elections: What The Polls Are Saying | NBC Chicago
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Illinois 2014 Elections: What The Polls Are Saying

Five major races, five possible outcomes.

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    NEWSLETTERS

    Pat Quinn and Bruce Rauner sparred at the Tribune Editorial Board discussion.

    With Election Day less than 24 hours away, let's look at polling in five key Illinois races:

    Quinn vs. Rauner. The projected outcome of this hotly contested governor race remains in toss-up territory as Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn catches up to Republican rival Bruce Rauner, subverting his opponent's early lead with a late-stage offensive fueled by negative ads. While Rauner has picked up enviable media endorsements, Quinn leveraged the support of A-list Democrats like President Obama (who still plays well here) to rally the base in Chicago. The latest survey, by North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling, has Quinn leading Rauner 47-45 percent, with Libertarian candidate Chad Grimm eating 3 percent of the vote and 5 percent undecided. "This is a race where the Libertarian candidate could play spoiler for GOP hopes," said the polling company, noting that "those voting for (Grimm) say they would pick Rauner over Quinn 54/14. In a head to head without him Quinn and Rauner would be tied at 48." Some people are not sold on those results.

    Durbin vs. Oberweis. The one-sided contest between Illinois' veteran Sen. Dick Durbin (the second most powerful Democrat in the Senate) and GOP foe Jim Oberweis is Durbin's to lose. Despite a few hiccups this election cycle, Durbin maintains a comfortable lead above Oberweis, a Republican state senator and local dairy mogul who has long eyed a federal seat. New Public Policy Polling data shows Durbin ahead of Oberweis by 10 percentage points.

    Dold vs. Schneider. The biggest battleground House race in Illinois is happening in the 10th congressional district, where Republican Bob Dold is angling to win back his former seat from Democratic congressman Brad Schneider. The 10th is home to Chicago's tony northern suburbs, which lean Democratic (having twice voted Obama into the White House) but also elect GOP lawmakers such as Mark Kirk, the junior senator, who prides himself on marrying fiscal conservatism and socially moderate views. With millions pouring in on both sides, the Dold-Schneider match-up is considered a toss-up.

    Enyart vs. Bost. Southern Illinois' district 12, which encompasses St. Clair and East St. Louis, also remains up for grabs amid a bitter showdown pitting Democratic Rep. Bill Enyart against GOP hothead Mike Bost, a representative in the state legislature. Several weeks ago, The Rothenberg Report re-labeled the race a "pure toss-up" after giving the edge to Enyart. Meanwhile, Politico has tipped the balance in Bost's favor. Come on, Bill! Bost SHOT HIS NEIGHBOR'S DOG in a violent rage. (Hilarious!). You can work with that. 

    Bustos vs. Schilling. In other projected House outcomes, 17th district Rep. Cheri Bustos, a Democrat, stands to retain her post amid a rival bid by Republican Bobby Schilling, who previously held the district before it was redistricted to encompass extra Democratic voters. Politico predicts a "likely" Bustos victory for the bluer-than-before 17th.