Chicago Bears

Playoff Scenarios: Bears Need Help, but Could Earn First Round Bye

The Bears own tiebreakers over the Saints and Rams, if they get some help

The Chicago Bears finished off the NFC North title on Sunday with a win over the Green Bay Packers, but there is still more work to do if they want to try to earn a first round bye in the NFL playoffs.

To do that, the Bears would need some help, as the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints both have better records than Chicago, but if things break their way, the Bears could be in a good spot moving forward.

Here are the remaining playoff scenarios now that the Bears have guaranteed themselves a division title and at least one home playoff game.

Note: if the Bears lose both of their remaining games to finish at 10-6, the best they can do is finish is third in the conference.

If the Bears and Saints Finish at 12-4

The Bears would get a first round bye in this scenario. This scenario would require the Bears to win their final two games, both of which are against NFC opponents. That would give them a 10-2 record against the NFC, which the Saints would be unable to match in this scenario since they would have to lose at least one game to a conference opponent in the last three weeks of the season, with two games left against the Carolina Panthers and one left against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Matthew Byrne
Khalil Mack warms up before the Bears' Week 15 game against the Packers.
Jordan Howard catches a ball in warm-ups before Sunday's game against the Packers.
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CHICAGO, IL - DECEMBER 16: Quarterback Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers warms up prior to the game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on December 16, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
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CHICAGO, IL - DECEMBER 16: Kyle Fuller #23 and Mitchell Trubisky #10 of the Chicago Bears hug prior to the game against the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field on December 16, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
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CHICAGO, IL - DECEMBER 16: Jordan Howard #24 of the Chicago Bears carries the football against Eddie Pleasant #35 of the Green Bay Packers in the first quarter at Soldier Field on December 16, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
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CHICAGO, IL - DECEMBER 16: Khalil Mack #52 of the Chicago Bears warms up prior to the game Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field on December 16, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
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CHICAGO, IL - DECEMBER 16: Tarik Cohen #29 of the Chicago Bears runs the football against Kentrell Brice #29 of the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field on December 16, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
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CHICAGO, IL - DECEMBER 16: Adam Shaheen #87 of the Chicago Bears completes the pass in the second quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field on December 16, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
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CHICAGO, IL - DECEMBER 16: Blake Martinez #50 of the Green Bay Packers tackles Taquan Mizzell #33 of the Chicago Bears in the first quarter at Soldier Field on December 16, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
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CHICAGO, IL - DECEMBER 16: Head coach Matt Nagy of the Chicago Bears stands on the sidelines in the third quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field on December 16, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
Matthew Byrne
Matthew Byrne
Matthew Byrne

If the Bears and Saints Finish at 11-5

The Bears would need a LOT of help in this scenario, since the Saints would have to lose their last three games, but they would win the tiebreaker since the Saints would have an inferior record against the NFC.

If the Bears and Rams Finish in a Two-Way Tie at Either 12-4 or 11-5:

The Bears would win the tiebreaker in both cases since they beat the Rams during the regular season.

If the Bears, Saints, and Rams All Finish at 12-4:

In this scenario, the Rams would have to lose once in their last two games, the Saints would have to lose two of their final three, and the Bears would have to win both of their remaining games. If these scenarios all came to pass, it would give the Bears the top seed in the NFC due to their superior conference record over both teams. 

If the Bears and Cowboys Finish at 10-6

The Cowboys would finish ahead of the Bears by virtue of their superior record against the NFC. That would require Dallas to win their final two games, and for the Bears to lose their final two games.

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