Ward Room
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Handicapping The Republican Primary



    Political experts and odds makers predict next week's GOP presidential primary

    Here are predictions and odds on next week’s Illinois Republican presidential primary, from both political experts and bookies

        Nate Silver, fivethirtyeight.com

        Mitt Romney    38.7 percent of the vote     66 percent chance to win
        Rick Santorum 34.5 percent of the vote     34 percent chance to win
        Newt Gingrich 14.1 percent of the vote      0   percent chance to win
        Ron Paul            8.7 percent of the vote      0   percent chance to win

        Larry Sabato, Crystal Ball
        Romney            34 delegates
        Santorum          20 delegates
        Gingrich               0 delegates
        Paul                      0 delegates


        Mitt Romney       82.5 percent chance to win
        Rick Santorum  17.6 percent chance to win
        Ron Paul             0.5 percent chance to win
        Newt Gingrich    0.3 percent chance to win

        Paddypower.com odds on the winner:

        Mitt Romney     1/6
        Rick Santorum  7/2
        Ron Paul          50/1
        Newt Gingrich 50/1

        The odds on the Republican nomination, from British bookmaker William Hill:

        Mitt Romney  1/14
        Rick Santorum 10/1
        Ron Paul           25/1
        Jeb Bush    25/1
        Sarah Palin      33/1
        Newt Gingrich 40/1