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Handicapping The Republican Primary

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Handicapping The Republican Primary

Political experts and odds makers predict next week's GOP presidential primary

Here are predictions and odds on next week’s Illinois Republican presidential primary, from both political experts and bookies

    Nate Silver, fivethirtyeight.com

    Mitt Romney    38.7 percent of the vote     66 percent chance to win
    Rick Santorum 34.5 percent of the vote     34 percent chance to win
    Newt Gingrich 14.1 percent of the vote      0   percent chance to win
    Ron Paul            8.7 percent of the vote      0   percent chance to win

    Larry Sabato, Crystal Ball
    Romney            34 delegates
    Santorum          20 delegates
    Gingrich               0 delegates
    Paul                      0 delegates


    Mitt Romney       82.5 percent chance to win
    Rick Santorum  17.6 percent chance to win
    Ron Paul             0.5 percent chance to win
    Newt Gingrich    0.3 percent chance to win

    Paddypower.com odds on the winner:

    Mitt Romney     1/6
    Rick Santorum  7/2
    Ron Paul          50/1
    Newt Gingrich 50/1

    The odds on the Republican nomination, from British bookmaker William Hill:

    Mitt Romney  1/14
    Rick Santorum 10/1
    Ron Paul           25/1
    Jeb Bush    25/1
    Sarah Palin      33/1
    Newt Gingrich 40/1



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