The Chicago area has seen a cool and occasionally rainy start to fall, but what do forecasts indicate for the season moving forward?
According to the first extended outlook, valid in the first week of October, forecasters are “leaning above” in terms of temperatures for Illinois and northern Indiana between Oct. 1 and 5:
More confidence is being shown into the second week of October, with forecasters saying temperatures in Illinois and northern Indiana will “likely be above” normal:
The confidence dips slightly into the third week of October, with forecasters once again “leaning” toward above-average temperatures:
To put things into context, average temperatures in the city of Chicago in early October typically settle into the upper-60s, but by month’s end the average high in the city is just 56 degrees, according to the National Weather Service.
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In fact, the normal first date that the city sees its first trace of snow is on Oct. 31. By Nov. 18, the city has typically seen its first measurable snowfall of the season, defined as 0.1 or more inches, and by Dec. 7 the city has usually seen its first snowfall of an inch or more.
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Forecasters also believe that the area is expecting below-average precipitation through the early stages of the month, but indicated that they suspect Illinois and Indiana could see at least some relief from droughts that have been impacting the region.
Chicago typically sees around 3.4 inches of rain in the month of October, according to NWS data.
As for the current forecast models, highs are expected to dip after an area of low pressure moves through the Chicago area this weekend, though highs are still expected to be in the upper-60s under partly-to-mostly sunny skies.
Stay tuned to the NBC 5 Storm Team for all the latest weather news and information.
