Chicago Weather

Old Farmers Almanac releases predicted last frost dates for 2025. What to expect

While there's an age-old saying to never plant before Mother's Day in the Chicago area, it appears the recent predictions might say otherwise

Attention gardeners: The Old Farmers Almanac has predicted the last frost dates across the U.S. for 2025 -- and some in the Chicago area might be surprised.

While there's an age-old saying to never plant before Mother's Day in the Chicago area, it appears the recent predictions might say otherwise.

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According to a map of the average last spring freeze, much of the Chicago-area predictions show dates of late-April. The predictions, calculated using 1991-2020 Climate Normals from NOAA, are a 30% probability, however.

"The probability of a frost (32° or lower) occurring after the spring frost date or before the fall frost date is 30%, which means that there is still a chance of frost occurring before or after the given dates," the almanac states.

So the Mother's Day advice might not be too far off, considering Mother's Day falls on May 11 this year.

The frost predictions are particularly important for gardeners as certain plants cannot survive the cold temperatures.

"A light frost—32°F and colder—kills all tender plants, such as tomatoes. Hardier plants such as spinach and kale will survive until a hard freeze at 28°F and colder," the almanac reported.

In fact, some plants even taste better with a frost.

"For instance, broccoli’s flavor improves if the plant has experienced a frost, and carrots get sweeter as the temperature drops. Root crops develop more sugars when the soil temperature is below 40°F; Brussels sprouts are often best after a light freeze," the almanac noted.

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There are several ways to protect plants from a frost if you do plant too early, but how you do it will depend on what you planted and where you live.

April has so far been rather cold in Chicago, though that is not unusual for the region.

A big factor is the disruptions in the polar vortex, even as the “polar vortex season” is winding down, according to NBC 5 Meteorologist Kevin Jeanes.

When the polar vortex begins to wobble and allows arctic air to spill south into northern Illinois in April, it can lead to chillier temperatures in the 30s and 40s.

The city still averages 1.2 inches of snow in April. In April 2017, the region saw up to 8 inches. Record low and high temperatures range from 7 degrees to 91 degrees. 

And cold spells could continue even going into May. 

But, in line with the frost predictions for the much of the area, Jeanes reported there are signs of a milder and steadier temperature trend after April 20. 

Some models predict highs in the upper 60s around Chicago, while others suggest the possibility of the low 80s.

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