• The Exchange Sep 13

    Kelly Evans: They Bitcoined Carbon

    The price of fossil fuels keeps surging. The situation in Europe is getting worse. Natural gas prices are spiking through the roof–even worse than they were last week. Even oil is higher today as Goldman says $80 for U.S. crude could be next, up from about $70 where it’s trading today. Why? Because there is “growing scarcity across physical...

  • The Exchange Sep 7

    Kelly Evans: Are Energy Bills About to Spike?

    Don’t look now, but the price of natural gas is soaring, and it’s already creating major headaches over in Europe.  The surge–which started with a cold winter last year, but has been accelerated by a mysterious drying up of supplies from Russia, and Europe’s drive to phase out fossil fuels–means prices are now up fivefold from 2019. And there’s...

  • The Exchange Sep 3

    Kelly Evans: Why Did Hiring Stop?

    The most notable thing about this morning’s big jobs report miss was the sudden stop in hiring in the leisure and hospitality sectors.   Literally, those sectors had “unchanged,” i.e., zero, net jobs added after adding 350,000 per month on average in the six months prior. There are still 1.7 million “missing” jobs if you compare total employment in those sectors…

  • The Exchange Sep 1

    Kelly Evans: Power Outages

    I wasn’t joking about fossil fuels not being able to compete. In fact, none other than the Iraqi finance minister is issuing the same warning to fellow OPEC members today–just as the cartel holds its latest meeting.   Writing in The Guardian, Ali Allawi and IEA coauthor Fatih Birol note that the expected plunge in oil demand by 2050 would...

  • The Exchange Aug 31

    Kelly Evans: Home Prices Are…Just Getting Started?

    These numbers are insane. The Case-Shiller index just posted an 18.6% year-on-year gain for June. Home prices are now 41% higher than their last peak in 2006, during the housing bubble.   And it’s not because Case-Shiller is a “big-city” index. For starters, the broader 20-city composite was up 19% in June, outperforming the core 10-city index. What’s more, the separate…

  • Amazon.com Inc. Aug 25

    Kelly Evans: Who Needs Prime?

    I am not saying I don’t need Amazon. But do I still need Amazon Prime?   I’ve apparently been a member since 2005–which is basically when it started. I think back then it was $79 a year. Now it’s up to $119. Not horrible; that’s basically 2.5% inflation each year, more or less the broader rate.   But in 2005, I was...

  • The Exchange Aug 20

    Kelly Evans: Long Live Austrian Economics

    For anyone (hello, FinTwit) watching the long, drawn-out debate between Austrian and Keynesian economics, it would have easily seemed that despite the brief ascent of post-crisis movements like the Tea Party, the Keynesians had won this battle for the “right” way to do macro years ago, and that was that.   Ah, but not so fast. The Keynesians might firmly hold…

  • The Exchange Aug 19

    Kelly Evans: What's Wrong With the Retail Sales Report

    Let’s think back to July for a moment. I remember it well–the Fourth was my son’s birthday. Covid was receding, summer was in full swing, and so we excitedly sent out invitations for a backyard birthday party. “Ohhhh…we’ll be at the Cape! Sorry!” Read one reply. “Out of town–hate to miss it!” Read another. And another. And another.   We still had a...

  • The Exchange Aug 17

    Kelly Evans: Time to Taper the Taper?

    Let’s consider the following cluster of events:   (1) The Fed has just signaled it’ll announce a taper next month, but  (2) The economic data have started rolling over, and  (3) Powell and two other key Fed officials are up for reappointment in the months ahead.   This is what has Jefferies strategist David Zervos warning that the Fed is on the…

  • The Exchange Aug 16

    Kelly Evans: Leaving Afghanistan

    Afghanistan. Who hasn’t seen the videos yet of locals clinging to the departing planes, desperate to get out as the Taliban completes its takeover?  As for the global response, here’s how one overseas trader, Bill Blain, put it this morning:  “The credibility of Biden’s foreign policy and his presidency went down in tatters over a shockingly fast timeframe–and that’s...

  • The Exchange Jul 29

    Kelly Evans: The Big Deal About This “Big Deal”

    I don’t love following all the machinations in D.C. So when it seems like Big Things Are Happening, I turn to my political guru, CNBC producer Jackson Burke, for the real story.   I asked him about The Infrastructure Deal that seems to be coming together. Is it really, and what’s the real story? Here are his super-condensed thoughts:  “The...

  • The Exchange Jul 28

    Kelly Evans: The Cost of Having Kids

    We talked yesterday about China’s crackdown on tutoring firms, which are reportedly under heat for contributing to Chinese parents’ reluctance to have more children. Basically, they cost a ton of money but are seen as essential for getting kids “excellent grades, excellent test scores, and admission to an excellent college or university.”   Gee, sounds familiar! How ironic that in...

  • The Exchange Jul 27

    Kelly Evans: China Cracks Down

    “China stocks implode” my inbox screamed this morning. Even our running coach was talking about it (“Did you see the Chinese markets?”) at our 5:30 a.m. track session. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong is down almost 10% just since Friday. One of the main China ETFs here in the U.S.–the KWEB–is down 18% since then!   We actually spoke...

  • The Exchange Jul 22

    Kelly Evans: Heads Up – Our ESG Special Is Today

    Hi everyone!  At 2 p.m. ET today, Power Lunch is doing an hourlong special on “ESG” investing. Set your DVRs or whatever, but we’ll have segments on each aspect – literally the “E” (Environmental), the “S” (Social), and the “G” (Governance), with a critical look at how this massive new investing trend is affecting corporate America and Wall Street.   As…

  • The Exchange Jul 21

    Kelly Evans: Uh-Oh, It's Gary Gorton

    One day, not long after the financial crisis in 2008-09, I ran into the newsroom at The Wall Street Journal, where I worked at the time. “You guys!!” I said. “I just read the most amazing paper about shadow banking that explains everything.”   I was referring to the work of Yale researcher–and former AIG consultant–Gary Gorton (see full list of his work...

  • The Exchange Jul 19

    Kelly Evans: Everything's Falling

    The Dow’s down 800 points, the 10-year yield is now below 1.2%, Bitcoin is down $900, and energy is getting shellacked.  My own personal hypothesis is that this is capitulation–of the inflation trade. Energy being the last shoe to drop, after OPEC+ decided to boost output. Gasoline futures are down 5% (hurray!).   Oddly, I’m even more persuaded by Michael Darda’s…

  • The Exchange Jul 16

    Kelly Evans: Why Do Interest Rates Keep Falling?!

    Yesterday was really, really weird. I’m standing there rattling off stats about how poorly Cathie Woods’ ARK ETF is doing–her widely followed ARK-K innovation fund was down for the tenth day out of eleven–and in the next breath talking about how the 10-year yield had just slid below 1.3%.   That’s not what’s supposed to be happening. Everyone would say that the...

  • The Exchange Jul 15

    Kelly Evans: What the Child Tax Credit Is Really All About

    It’s already getting a ton of buzz. “Did you get the notice?” People are excitedly asking one another. What’s all the fuss about? The “child tax credit” payments that start going out today.   Wait a minute, all this excitement over a tax credit? Yes, because it’s a euphemism for straight cash from the government, no-strings-attached (irrespective of what taxes...

  • The Exchange Jul 14

    Kelly Evans: Where Will Bitcoin Strike Next?

    One evening this spring, Strike CEO Jack Mallers was eating at a sushi restaurant in San Salvador with a couple of his friends when he got a strange DM on Twitter. It purported to be the brother of El Salvador’s president, saying they wanted to talk to Jack about the sudden growth of his app in the country.  The...

  • The Exchange Jul 13

    Kelly Evans: Where Inflation Hides

    The CPI report out this morning wasn’t pretty. Prices are up 5.4% from last June, the most since 2008 (the core yearly gain of 4.5% is the highest since 1991). Put differently, it means your dollar doesn’t go as far. The same buck that got you three candy bars in the checkout line last year falls shy of being able…

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