Who could replace Pope Francis? Names in the running, including 1 from Chicago

Editor's Note: The Vatican has released details about Pope Francis' funeral. The latest story can be found here. Our original story continues below.

Following the death of Pope Francis, just hours after an Easter Sunday appearance, many are wondering who will be next.

Any baptized Catholic male is eligible, though only cardinals have been selected since 1378. The winner must receive at least two-thirds of the vote from those cardinals under age 80 and thus eligible to participate. 

The process for determining who will be the next pope is a sacred and secretive one.

A popular saying in Vatican circles is that if you “enter a conclave as pope, you leave as a cardinal," implying there's no popularity contest or campaign, but rather the divinely inspired election of Christ’s Vicar on Earth by the princes of the church.

Still, there are always front-runners, known as “papabile,” who have at least some of the qualities considered necessary to be pope.

Pope Francis appointed the vast majority of electors, often tapping men who share his pastoral priorities, which suggests continuity rather than rupture.

While there's no true way to predict, and any such lists are considered speculation, possible candidates could include a Chicago name, though the potential for an American pope remains questionable.

Here's what and who to know:

Who are seen as contenders to be the next pope?

Cardinal Peter Erdo

Erdo, 72, the archbishop of Budapest and primate of Hungary, was twice elected head of the Council of European Episcopal Conferences, in 2005 and 2011, suggesting he enjoys the esteem of European cardinals who make up the biggest voting bloc of electors. In that capacity, Erdo got to know many African cardinals because the council hosts regular sessions with African bishops’ conferences. Erdo had even more exposure when he helped organize Francis’ 2014 and 2015 Vatican meetings on the family and delivered key speeches, as well as during papal visits to Budapest in 2021 and 2023.

Cardinal Reinhard Marx

Marx, 71, the archbishop of Munich and Freising, was chosen by Francis as a key adviser in 2013. Marx later was named to head the council overseeing Vatican finances during reforms and belt-tightening. The former president of the German bishops’ conference was a strong proponent of the controversial “synodal path” process of dialogue in the German church that began in 2020 as a response to the clergy sexual abuse scandal there. As a result, he is viewed with skepticism by conservatives who considered the process a threat to church unity, given it involved debating issues such as celibacy, homosexuality and women’s ordination. Marx made headlines in 2021 when he dramatically offered to resign as archbishop to atone for the German church’s dreadful abuse record, but Francis quickly rejected the resignation and told him to stay.

Cardinal Marc Ouellet

Ouellet, 80, of Canada, led the Vatican’s influential bishops office for over a decade, overseeing the key clearinghouse for potential candidates to head dioceses around the world. Francis kept Ouellet in the job until 2023, even though he was appointed by Pope Benedict XVI, and thus helped select the more doctrinaire bishops preferred by the German pontiff. Considered more of a conservative than Francis, Ouellet still selected pastorally minded bishops to reflect Francis’ belief that bishops should “smell like the sheep” of their flock. Ouellet defended priestly celibacy for the Latin Rite church and upheld the ban on women’s ordination but called for women to have a greater role in church governance. He has good contacts with the Latin American church, having headed the Vatican’s Pontifical Commission for Latin America for over a decade. Since 2019, his office has taken charge of investigating bishops accused of covering up for predator priests, a job that would have made him no friends among those sanctioned but also could have given him lots of otherwise confidential and possibly compromising information about fellow cardinals.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin

Parolin, 70, of Italy, has been Francis’ secretary of state since 2014 and is considered one of the main contenders to be pope, given his prominence in the Catholic hierarchy. The veteran diplomat oversaw the Holy See’s controversial deal with China over bishop nominations and was involved -- but not charged -- in the Vatican’s botched investment in a London real estate venture that led to a 2021 trial of another cardinal and nine others. A former ambassador to Venezuela, Parolin knows the Latin American church well. He would be seen as someone who would continue in Francis’ tradition but as a more sober and timid diplomatic insider, returning an Italian to the papacy after three successive outsiders: St. John Paul II (Poland); Benedict (Germany) and Francis (Argentina). But while Parolin has managed the Vatican bureaucracy, he has no real pastoral experience. His ties to the London scandal, in which his office lost of tens of millions of dollars to bad deals and shady businessmen, could count against him.

Cardinal Robert Prevost

The idea of an American pope has long been taboo, given the geopolitical power already wielded by the United States. But the Chicago-born Prevost, 69, could be a first. He has extensive experience in Peru, first as a missionary and then an archbishop, and he is currently prefect of the Vatican’s powerful dicastery for bishops, in charge of vetting nominations for bishops around the world. Francis clearly had an eye on him for years and sent him to run the diocese of Chiclayo, Peru, in 2014. He held that position until 2023, when Francis brought him to Rome for his current role. Prevost is also president of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America, a job that keeps him in regular contact with the Catholic hierarchy in the part of the world that still counts the most Catholics. In addition to his nationality, Prevost’s comparative youth could count against him if his brother cardinals don’t want to commit to a pope who might reign for another two decades.

Cardinal Robert Sarah

Sarah, 79, of Guinea, the retired head of the Vatican’s liturgy office, was long considered the best hope for an African pope. Beloved by conservatives, Sarah would signal a return to the doctrinaire and liturgically minded papacies of John Paul II and Benedict. Sarah, who had previously headed the Vatican’s charity office Cor Unum, clashed on several occasions with Francis, none more seriously than when he and Benedict co-authored a book advocating the “necessity” of continued celibacy for Latin Rite priests. The book came out as Francis was weighing whether to allow married priests in the Amazon to address a priest shortage there. The implication was that Sarah had manipulated Benedict into lending his name and moral authority to a book that had all the appearances of being a counterweight to the Francis' own teaching. Francis dismissed Benedict’s secretary and several months later retired Sarah after he turned 75. Even Sarah’s supporters lamented the episode hurt his papal chances.

Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn

Schoenborn, 80, the archbishop of Vienna, Austria, was a student of Benedict's, and thus on paper seems to have the doctrinaire academic chops to appeal to conservatives. However, he became associated with one of Francis’ most controversial moves by defending his outreach to divorced and civilly remarried Catholics as an “organic development of doctrine,” not the rupture that some conservatives contended. Schoenborn’s parents divorced when he was a teen, so the issue is personal. He also took heat from the Vatican when he criticized its past refusal to sanction high-ranking sexual abusers, including his predecessor as archbishop of Vienna. Schoenborn has expressed support for civil unions and women as deacons, and was instrumental in editing the 1992 update of the Catechism of the Catholic Church, the handbook of the church’s teaching that Benedict had spearheaded when he headed the Vatican’s doctrine office.

Cardinal Luis Tagle

Tagle, 67, of the Philippines, would appear to be Francis’ pick for the first Asian pope. Francis brought the popular archbishop of Manila to Rome to head the Vatican’s missionary evangelization office, which serves the needs of the Catholic Church in much of Asia and Africa. His role took on greater weight when Francis reformed the Vatican bureaucracy and raised the importance of his evangelization office. Tagle often cites his Chinese lineage – his maternal grandmother was part of a Chinese family that moved to the Philippines -- and he is known for becoming emotional when discussing his childhood. Though he has pastoral, Vatican and management experience -- he headed the Vatican’s Caritas Internationalis federation of charity groups before coming to Rome permanently -- Tagle would be on the young side to be elected pope for life, with cardinals perhaps preferring an older candidate whose papacy would be more limited.

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi

Zuppi, 69, the archbishop of Bologna and president of the Italian bishops conference, elected in 2022, is closely affiliated with the Sant’Egidio Community, a Rome-based Catholic charity that was influential under Francis, particularly in interfaith dialogue. Zuppi was part of Sant’Egidio’s team that helped negotiate the end of Mozambique’s civil war in the 1990s and was named Francis' peace envoy for Russia's war in Ukraine. Francis made him a cardinal in 2019 and later made clear he wanted him in charge of Italy’s bishops, a sign of his admiration for the prelate who, like Francis, is known as a “street priest.” In another sign of his progressive leanings and closeness to Francis, Zuppi wrote the introduction to the Italian edition of “Building a Bridge,” by the Rev. James Martin, an American Jesuit, about the church’s need to improve its outreach to the LGBTQ+ community. Zuppi would be a candidate in Francis’ tradition of ministering to those on the margins, although his relative youth would count against him for cardinals seeking a short papacy. His family had strong institutional ties: Zuppi’s father worked for the Vatican newspaper L’Osservatore Romano, and his mother was the niece of Cardinal Carlo Confalonieri, dean of the College of Cardinals in the 1960s and 1970s.

What happens once a pope dies?

When a pope dies, the first event that takes place is the papal funeral in Rome, which typically occurs within four to six days of the death. The Dean of the College of Cardinals will presides over the funeral Mass.

"We haven't heard any official word from the Vatican on when that will happen," NBC News' Anne Thompson said.

NBC 5's Mary Ann Ahern indicated the funeral could take place later this week or over the weekend, though they don't typically take place on a Sunday.

Cardinals from around the world come to Rome for the funeral, but not all do. Following the funeral is a period called the "congregations," where the cardinal electors get together for speeches, Thompson said.

"While they're all cardinals, they really don't know each other, and they have to get to know each other," Thompson said.

Fifteen days later, there will be a conclave, when cardinal electors to into the Sistine Chapel and spend days voting on who will be the next pope.

What is a conclave and how does it work?

A pope’s resignation or death triggers a centuries-old, secretive process of succession and requires what’s known as a conclave. Such a gathering of Catholic cardinals from around the world has been depicted by the 2024 Hollywood movie with the same name.

"It's always Hollywood, but there are some realities in that," NBC 5's Mary Ann Ahern said. "They do go into the Sistine Chapel, they give up all of their phones, they give up any kind of way to communicate, and they meet."

The Cardinals vote three times each day to decide who will be the next pope, Ahern said. The process could take up two to three days.

"If there is a vote of no, you see gray smoke coming from the Sistine Chapel," Ahern added. "If they have a majority vote, the smoke is white. And every time there is a smoke, everyone runs to gather outside the square to see."

Within the half hour, the new pope appears at the square, Ahern said.

According to Ahern, there are some 136 Cardinals from around the world that will participate.

"You have to be under the age of 83," Ahern added.

Three of the Cardinals have Chicago ties, Ahern said: Cardinal Blase Cupich, the Catholic Archbishop of Chicago; Wilton Gregory, who had been the Cardinal of Atlanta, and Robert Prevost; who currently holds a Vatican position.

"They will all vote on the next pope," Ahern said. "Will they choose someone like Francis, or will they turn the page and go back to someone who is more conservative?"

Ahern noted that some names have been floated already.

"Don't trust any of the lists," Ahern said. "Wait until you see the smoke. The white smoke tells us."

There are nearly 3.2 million Roman Catholics in the greater Chicago area and Northwest Indiana - at several dioceses and hundreds of parishes and schools, and more than 1.2 billion Roman Catholics across the world.