How Bears' season swung on one play in first game vs Saints originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago
There were a total of 2,063 offensive and defensive plays in the Chicago Bears’ 2020 regular season, so to pick the most significant play of the year is not an easy task.
Mitch Trubisky’s early third quarter interception against the Falcons in Week 3 would be an instant nominee because it resulted in his benching and changed the course of the season. And yet, in hindsight – perhaps even in foresight – the benching seemed inevitable and might have happened eventually anyway.
Regardless of what happens in Sunday’s playoff game against the New Orleans Saints, the 2020 regular season will always be defined by the dreadful six-game losing streak that followed an improbable 5-1 start. But in the middle of that six-game losing streak, the Bears had a real shot to beat the Saints at Soldier Field on Nov. 1.
And the most significant play of the season occurred with 58 seconds left on the clock in the second quarter.
But before we get to that play, let’s set it up. It was Week 8 and the Bears were 5-2, even though they had an ugly loss to the Rams on Monday Night Football the week before. The game against the Saints was the second in a tough three game stretch that many believed would either validate the Bears’ strong start to the season or expose them as frauds. A trip to Nashville to face the Titans followed.
With 2:30 left in the second quarter, the Bears led the Saints 10-3 and had the ball at mid-field. Facing a 3rd-and-1, running back David Montgomery burst through the line for a 38-yard gain and the Bears were suddenly in the red zone with a chance to take a 17-3 lead on the 4-2 Saints before halftime.
But, consistent with their season-long red zone struggles, they only gained three yards on the next three plays and settled for a field goal. They also only took 13 seconds off the clock on those three plays, which gave Drew Brees the ball back with 1:34 to go in the second quarter.
And that’s where the next sequence of plays defined the Bears’ season on the defensive side of the ball.
On the second play of the drive, Khalil Mack sacked Brees and managed to get the ball loose. But as has been a theme all season, the Bears were not able to secure the loose ball. Still, one play later, the Saints faced a 3rd & 13 with 58 seconds left on the clock and the Bears were set to get ball after halftime with a 13-3 lead.
And that’s when the biggest play of the season happened.
“(Alvin Kamara) catches a screen and everybody knew who the ball was going to and they outexecuted us,” Bears defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano recalled this week.
Pagano put his dime package on the field and only rushed three, which meant the Bears had eight defenders back. Reserve cornerback Sherrick McManis was closest to Kamara, but wasn’t able to make the diving tackle with Saints left guard Andrus Peat changing his angle. And then, well, the rest of the defense was just slow to react. Roquan Smith overpursued a bit, which pushed Kamara to the middle of the field and away from safety Tashaun Gipson and cornerback Jaylon Johnson. Safety Eddie Jackson and cornerback Kyle Fuller stood flat footed and didn’t really do anything. By the time Smith recovered and got some help from cornerback Buster Skrine to bring Kamara down, the talented running back had picked up 12 of the 13 yards needed for a first down.
“You gotta get off the field,” Pagano said.
While the Bears’ defenders held up their fists seemingly celebrating that it was fourth down, Saints head coach Sean Payton didn’t hesitate. At the Bears’ 48-yard-line with 34 seconds left, Brees pitched the ball to Kamara on 4th-and-1 and the running back picked up seven.
“Then you get into a fourth and less than one and they run a flip play to him and he gets the first down and then the next thing you know, they're rolling,” Pagano said.
The Saints got some help as Fuller was called for a phantom pass interference penalty three plays later, but that was followed by two wide open throws to tight end Jared Cook. Brees missed the first one behind Cook, but then him for a touchdown against Johnson on the very next play.
“With eight seconds to go, they throw their favorite route,” Pagano said. “It's on film 10,000 times over the course of the last 10 ye-- whatever. And they got us. That can't happen.”
A possible 17-3 lead for the Bears quickly turned into just a 13-10 lead and the Saints were right back in the game.
“At that point in time in the game, where you're talking about, yeah, that's a big-time swing,” head coach Matt Nagy said.
It turned out to be a big swing in the season too, as that was just loss No. 2 in what turned into a six-game losing streak.
And yet, that sequence was a microcosm of the Bears’ 2020 season. Settling for a field goal in the red zone. Failing to get a takeaway. Not getting off the field in a big moment.
It also signaled the beginning of a startling red zone trend for the defense. The Bears finished the season fifth in red zone defense, but that doesn’t tell the full story. Since that Saints game (which represents half of the season) the Bears’ defense has allowed 17 touchdowns on 23 opponent trips to the red zone (73.9 percent). In the first half of the season, they only allowed 12 touchdowns on 30 red zone trips (40 percent).
The first half percentage would rank No. 1 in the NFL over the course of the entire season (the Broncos finished No. 1 at 47.54 percent), but the second half percentage would rank 31st (the Chiefs were No. 32 at 76.6 percent).
And one of the reasons why there were more opponent red zone trips in the first half of the season is because the defense started giving up more explosive touchdowns in the second half of the season – which is another way of saying opponents were scoring touchdowns before they even reached the end zone. Just look at these numbers:
Bears touchdowns allowedFirst 8 games: 14 total TDs (12 red zone)Last 8 games: 25 total TDs (17 red zone)
In the first meeting against the Saints, the Bears were actually quite good in the red zone, despite the touchdown allowed before halftime. New Orleans had to settle for three field goals (although one was the game-winner in overtime) and they also kicked two more from the 20-yard-line, which don’t technically count as red zone trips.
It’s been a much different story ever since, however, and the prospect of stopping Kamara without linebacker Roquan Smith (questionable, elbow) – who played one of his best games of the season against the Saints in November – is quite daunting.
That said, if the Bears have any path to victory, it starts with capitalizing on big opportunities. When the ball is loose, the defense must secure it. When the Bears have a chance to get off the field on 3rd-and-long, they must do it. And if there is a swing going into halftime, the Bears must be on the positive side of the swing.
“These guys score more points at the end of the half than anybody in the National Football League,” Pagano said. “I think 84 points leads the league right now in two-minute situations and probably the end of the half … It’s going to come down to, you know, we're going to be a couple of those situations, end of half, end of game, whatever it is. Just like we were in the first one.”
