Bulls' Late Season Regression Is Disappointing and Complex

3 reasons behind Bulls’ regression after trade deadline originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago

A Bulls season that began with modest expectations and created hope with competent play is now ending similarly to each of the last three seasons, albeit with seven games remaining to try and salvage something.

The Bulls were supposed to be past the days when looking up the date of the draft lottery -- and its inherent odds for the draft order -- ruled the day. Particularly after Artūras Karnišovas made two things clear during a Zoom media session following his very busy first trade deadline as a lead executive.

One: He wasn’t done overhauling the roster, which means he has more changes in mind this offseason.

And two: He believed the trades that added Nikola Vučević, Al-Farouq Aminu, Daniel Theis, Troy Brown Jr. and Javonte Green improved the Bulls this season.

“Right from the beginning from the time we got here, we said that we're trying to get back to relevancy and today made it happen,” Karnišovas said on March 25. “Expectations are always obviously winning and getting in the playoffs and getting our team better.

“I thought that we really improved today. We have, what, 29 games left? We’re going to make a push. We’ll see what happens the rest of the season.”

What has happened has largely been disappointing. Between a difficult mix of injury, illness and inability to form chemistry, the Bulls take a 7-15 record since the trade deadline into Thursday’s matchup with the Hornets in Charlotte, N.C.

On the day of the deadline, the Bulls sat in 10th place, 1.5 games ahead of 11th-place Toronto. Now, they are 12th, four games behind the streaking Wizards for the final play-in spot.

On the day of the deadline, the Bulls were on pace to finish 32-40. Now, they’re on pace to finish 29-43.

So, what happened?

Like most matters of underachieving, there are multiple reasons for why the Bulls regressed instead of progressed. Here are three:

Player absences

Zach LaVine, the team’s leading scorer who earned his first All-Star selection this season, has missed the last 11 games while in the league’s health and safety protocols. Vučević, the coveted second All-Star, has missed the last two games with a sore hip.

Brown, a low-key important rotational piece because of his defensive presence, has missed the last eight games with a sprained ankle. Garrett Temple, another strong wing defender, also sat for eight games with a hamstring strain.

Theis missed two games for personal reasons. Lauri Markkanen and Tomáš Satoranský each sat once for non-COVID illness. Coby White missed three games, two with a sore neck and one in the health and safety protocols.

It’s a lot. However, the absences don’t explain the 3-7 record when LaVine and Vučević played together shortly after the deadline. In 245 shared minutes, lineups featuring that pairing had a net rating of minus-12.3.

Tough competition or not, that’s troubling.

Lack of chemistry

Karnišovas envisioned a seamless transition for Vučević because of Billy Donovan’s free-flowing offense that places an emphasis on decision-making, off-ball reads and player movement. And before his hip injury, Vučević has certainly delivered. He’s averaging 22.3 points, 10.9 rebounds and 3.6 assists in 20 games, while shooting 42.3 percent from 3-point range.

But something is missing. The Bulls’ offensive rating has dropped from 110.6 in 43 games before the trade deadline to 108.9 in 22 games after it. The defensive rating has worsened too, increasing from 111.6 to 113.2.

Again, player absences impact this. LaVine is averaging 27.5 points per game. Brown and Temple are valuable wing defenders. Theis is a physical rim protector.

But it’s been clear from the jump that Billy Donovan has been trying to find the right lineup combinations, an exercise made more difficult by the lack of practice time and missed games.

The Bulls are turning it over less since the deadline and playing through Vučević more, reasons why their pace has dropped from averaging 101.07 possessions per game before the deadline to 97.11 after it. They’re also not shooting it as well, although their impressive assist percentage of 67.9 since the deadline -- fourth in the NBA -- underscores the unselfish play on display all season.

Again, it’s a small sample size of 245 minutes. But LaVine and Vučević only produced an offensive rating of 103.5 in their shared court time.

Something has seemed off since the trades. Perhaps it’s just too much change and not enough practice time in what already is an atypical season.

But Donovan has all season preached establishing a standard of play. Shorthanded or not, the Bulls have failed to meet it more often than not.

Player development

This is a tricky one. Donovan has spoken consistently about player development taking different forms, including understanding what goes into winning. So the behind-the-scenes challenges to put in extra work, have good film study habits, eat and sleep right can’t be monitored and, by all accounts, is happening.

Also clearly, management made a determination on which young assets it valued by pushing in chips like Wendell Carter Jr., Daniel Gafford and Chandler Hutchison to acquire the players it did.

Don’t forget: Markkanen, who’s obviously still here, was offered for Lonzo Ball, according to multiple sources at the time.

So let’s focus on White, Markkanen and Patrick Williams.

White has started to find his footing in catch-and-shoot situations. And in his last 11 games as a starter, he’s averaging 18.4 points, 6.1 assists and 2.5 turnovers while shooting 38.8 percent from 3-point range. He may not be a point guard, but he’s an important piece.

Markkanen has moved from franchise centerpiece to reserve. And while he has fared better in small-forward minutes than he did in a disastrous stint there two seasons ago, it’s not his natural position. His upcoming restricted free agency carries with it the feel of change.

Williams is the most mysterious case. On the one hand, he has admirably started every game but one he missed. He has accepted every defensive assignment thrown his way. And he clearly has the physical tools to be a two-way force.

But his monthly scoring average dropped from 10.6 points to 9.4 to seven from February to April. And his 19-point game to open May marked his highest output since March 14.

Scoring isn’t the only measuring stick. But Donovan and Thad Young both openly have talked about imploring Williams to play more aggressively. And an effective midrange game that flashed frequently at the start of the season has largely vanished.

This regime entered with an emphasis on player development. Like the current playoff chances, the on-court results are coming up a bit short.

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