Andre Dawson Likely to End Up in Hall

On Monday, Rickey Henderson and Jim Rice were inducted to the Baseball Hall of Fame. One candidate, Henderson, was a first-ballot slam dunk; the other, Rice, was a 15th-year guy who many believe didn't belong, but who snuck in at the deadline all the same. (To read the statistical case for keeping Rice out click here.)

There is a similar debate over whether Andre Dawson is deserving enough for the Hall of Fame. Most local fans are convinced the Hawk deserves the Hall, but those who argued against Rice could argue on similar grounds against Dawson. What is less of an argument is whether Dawson will end up "getting his hall pass" in 2010. If the numbers are any indication, it's looking good.

Dawson received a vote on 67 percent of ballots submitted in 2009. That's an improvement from his 2008 total of 65 percent. Indeed, Dawson has increased his vote total every year but one, when he went from 61 percent of the vote in 2006 to 56 percent in 2007. Overall, though, Dawson is trending upward, and 2010 is a weak class of first-ballot Hall of Famers (Roberto Alomar is the best candidate in the class). That paucity could help Dawson's standing, or at least earn him a few votes.

What's more, the Hawk has time on his side. It took Rice 15 years to cross the 75 percent threshold. Dawson has been on the ballot for seven years, and it is not likely to take him eight more to earn eight percent of the sportswriters' votes.

Whether he deserves to be in is a different story. Whether he will get in? As of 2009, it's looking pretty good.