Schrock: Bears Should Only Trade No. 9 Pick If Deal Checks Several Boxes

Schrock: Price must be perfect for Bears to trade No. 9 pick originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago

Ryan Poles made his big move earlier this month when he traded the No. 1 overall pick to the Carolina Panthers for a haul that included wide receiver DJ Moore and the Panthers' 2024 first-round pick.

With that move, the Bears slid down the draft board to No. 9. But they might not stay there.

Poles has signaled that he'll be open to trading down again if the right deal comes along. The Bears general manager told NBC Sports' Peter King that he felt he could do "something historic" with the No. 1 pick trade but didn't want to wait and risk losing out on the package Carolina offered.

Another trade-down would give Poles the chance to complete that vision, but at what cost?

The Bears have already turned the No. 1 pick into a 26-year-old star receiver, a 2023 second-round pick, a 2024 first, and a 2025 second. A trade down from No. 9 to No. 11 (Tennessee Titans), No. 16 (Washington Commanders), or No. 18 (Detroit Lions) would add to the Bears' future draft arsenal, but it would also cost them the chance to add a blue-chip talent in the backend of the top 10.

Acquiring future draft capital is an enticing proposition for a general manager who knows the rebuild he faces will be a long and arduous journey. But the Bears need to inject elite talent into this roster immediately. With every peg they move down, that task becomes much more difficult.

Poles should be open to a deal, but his price to move down past 11 should be high. If the Bears move down past 14, there's a good chance the top tackles, edge rushers, and corners will all be gone, leaving the Bears with their pick of the "best of the rest."

The Bears have to nail this draft, especially the first four picks (No. 9, No. 53, No. 61, No. 64). Poles needs to exit the first three rounds with at least three players who can contribute on Day 1 at positions of need.

Sacrificing the chance to add a guy like Paris Johnson Jr., Broderick Jones, or Nolan Smith for an extra future second- or third-round pick isn't worth it.

Now if an extra first-round pick is on the table, that's different.

But that scenario would likely involve one of the top four quarterbacks sliding to No. 9 (not impossible) and would see the Bears go down to at least No. 15. The farther you move down, the bigger the return.

If the Bears believe they can still get a "red" player (second tier) and pick up an extra first from a team planning to start a rookie quarterback, that's a deal worth making.

But if Poles is unable to swindle a future first-round pick out of his trade partner, the Bears should stand pat and add to their dangerously low reservoir of elite talent.

Poles' disciplined free-agency decisions have put the Bears in a position where they need to leave the draft with an offensive tackle who can start on Day 1, at least two edge rushers, and at least a rotational defensive tackle.

They'll be able to check one of those boxes at No. 9. They could still achieve their goals at No. 15 or No. 18, but the margin for error shrinks as the elite players come off the board.

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There are diminishing returns in moving down. At a certain point, adding a player in the "blue" bucket should outweigh the value placed on future draft capital. That's especially true as the Bears enter a critical season in the development of quarterback Justin Fields. There is little room to slip up.

Poles likes to move around the draft board. We found that out last year. There will be more moves to come this April.

But if the Bears are going to sell the No. 9 pick, the price has to be perfect.

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