Opinion: Gubernatorial Odds

DAN RUTHERFORD, 9-5: Rutherford, who formally announced his campaign on June 2, is leading the Republican field, with 27 percent of the vote, despite having less name recognition than 2010 loser Bill Brady. Rutherford looks like the candidate who can best bridge the gaps between Tea Partiers and liberals, Downstaters and Chicagoans. Former Chicago mayor Richard M. Daley pointed him out at a luncheon, calling him a “wonderful man” who has done more for Illinois than most politicians. Rutherford also signaled he’s not going to repeat Brady’s rubes vs. city slickers campaign by saying, “I love Chicago. I think it’s a class act, a wonderful, global city, and Chicago deserves its fair share. But then so does Chenoa. I can work with people politically from different geographic parts of Illinois and people who have opinions on a lot of issues.”

LISA MADIGAN, 3-1: Madigan’s prospects are looking a bit worse since rival Bill Daley released a poll showing her father’s continued service as speaker would turn off voters to her campaign. The poll found that 53 percent of voters think it’s a “serious concern” that the Madigan family would control two branches of state government. Michael Madigan especially turns off independents, turning an easy victory over the still-unknown Rutherford into a dead heat. If Michael Madigan quits, Lisa would be the co-favorite. Otherwise, this could be tough.
PAT QUINN, 7-2: Quinn’s odds improved with the entry of Bill Daley into the Democratic primary. He could conceivably win a three-win primary with the help of groups he’s pandered to throughout his governorship: organized labor, social progressives and African-Americans. He’d still be a longshot against a Republican, though.
KIRK DILLARD, 15-1: The same poll that found Rutherford leading the GOP field also found that Dillard has zero support among Tea Partiers -- a small constituency, but important in a Republican primary. The reason: Dillard’s past service to Republican governors Jim Thompson and Jim Edgar, which he touts as his number one qualification for office. He’s seen as the embodiment of a party establishment whose compromises with Democrats led the state to its current fiscal crisis. Dillard’s time has come and gone.
BILL DALEY, 15-1: It’s hard to see him as more than a spoiler in this race. The Daley name doesn’t play well Downstate, and Bill hasn’t even bothered to appear there, figuring the primary will be won in Cook County. However, he has come up with the two best ideas of the campaign: retiring Michael Madigan as House Speaker, and amending the state’s constitution to allow a progressive income tax.
BRUCE RAUNER, 4,000,000-1: That’s how many dollars Rauner paid for the downtown he used as an address to clout his daughter into Walter Payton College Prep. Preaches a message of austerity for workers while lavishing himself in personal indulgences and insider perks. No one has ever been elected governor of Illinois without previous political experience. Rauner is showing us why.
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