Rahm Emanuel

Final Poll Results Predict a Rahm Victory

Mayor Rahm Emanuel has risen in the polls since about mid-March when both candidates revealed their budget plans

In the final poll before Tuesday's mayoral election, Mayor Rahm Emanuel finally achieved the 50 percent support he needs to rest assured Monday night.

Ogden and Fry released their weekly poll results two days before the election. Including undecided voters, Emanuel comes out with 51.3 percent of voters surveyed to Jesus "Chuy" Garcia's 33 percent. More than 15 percent still remained undecided.

Without the undecided voters factored in, 56.6 percent of voters pledged their support to Emanuel, while 43.4 percent supported Garcia.

The mayoral candidates were neck-and-neck in Ogden and Fry's polls until about mid-March when they revealed their budget plans and Emanuel began airing advertisements attacking Garcia's plan. Since then, the mayor has steadily climbed in the polls.

The Chicago Tribune released a poll March 31 showing Emanuel with an even stronger lead. The newspaper's poll results showed the mayor with 58 percent of the vote and Garcia with only 30 percent.

The makers of the Ogden and Fry poll attribute Emanuel's growing lead to his television advertisements attacking Garcia's budget plan.

"Most people vote in their own financial interest," Ogden and Fry wrote in an analysis of Sunday's poll. "The voters know Chicago's budget is a mess and don't want to see their property taxes or rent (indirectly) increase. Property values trump the irritation with the red-light cameras and Emanuel's abrasive personality."

Although Emanuel has an impressive showing in the polls, it doesn't necessarily mean his supporters will make an impressive showing in the voting booth on Tuesday.

Ogden and Fry concede that Hispanic votes usually under-poll, and Garcia has much more support from that demographic than the mayor does. If they come out in strong numbers on Tuesday, the mayor could lose his commanding lead.

Furthermore, Emanuel seems to have gained the support of the majority of the city's African-Americans, but it is unclear how many of them will turn out to vote.

In the final day before the election, both candidates are on the campaign trail urging their supporters to get out the vote in the last push before the big day.

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