Father's Day weekend in the Chicago area is shaping up to be mild one on the weather front, with seasonably cool temperatures Friday, a sunny and warm day Saturday, and an even warmer day on the holiday itself.
And though there is a small chance of rain Sunday, it's likely to be in the form of just a stray shower, the NBC 5 Storm Team says. While that may be good news for your outdoor plans, it doesn't bode well for the "severe drought" level the Chicago area has now entered.
Before you run out to get that last minute Father's Day card, here's a look at your weekend forecast.
Friday
Morning clouds Friday will clear around lunchtime, making way for some sunshine this afternoon, forecast models show. However, the day will be on the chilly side.
According to NBC 5 Meteorologist Alicia Roman, the average temperature for this time of year sits at 81 degrees. Friday's high, forecast models show, are likely to only reach into the 70s inland, with temperatures reaching only into the low-to-mid 60s along Lake Michigan.
Also the lake, the National Weather Service on Thursday issued Beach Hazard statement for swimmers and boaters, set to expire Friday afternoon. According to the NWS, dangerous currents are expected at Lake Michigan beaches, with waves between four and seven feet possible.
Local
"Life-threatening waves and currents will continue through this AM along the IL lakeshore and through this PM along the IN lakeshore," a tweet from the NWS said.
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Friday evening will be pleasant but cool, with temperatures along the lake lowering into the 50s, Roman says.
Saturday, Sunday
Hello, weekend -- and hello, warmer temperatures.
"Saturday afternoon, we're right back where we should be for this time of year," Roman says, with mostly sunny skies and temperature highs in the 70s and 80s, with slightly cooler temperatures along the lakefront.
Sunday is likely to see a cloudier day, forecast models show, along with a 20% chance of rain as a system attempts to move towards the Chicago area.
"We may squeeze out a stay shower," Roman says, adding that the chances remain low.
Temperatures Sunday are expected to be in the mid 70s to low 80s inland, and cooler near the lake.
Chicago now in 'severe drought'
The U.S. Drought Monitor says that parts of the Chicago area have been upgraded from "moderate drought" to “severe drought,” with likely no relief in the coming days.
According to the latest updates from the USDM, all of Cook County, as well as wide swaths of northeastern Illinois and northwestern Indiana are currently experiencing severe drought, thanks to significantly-reduced rainfall in recent weeks.
The National Weather Service reports that the drought conditions are the worst the area has seen since the summer of 2012.
And although there is a small chance for rain Sunday, that precipitation isn't expected to make a dent. Below-average rainfall is expected in the next 10 days, according to the National Weather Service, so drought conditions are expected to persist.
To illustrated the scope of the problem, most of the Chicago area has seen just one-quarter of its normal rainfall total in the last 30 days, per NWS officials.
As a result, large losses of soil moisture are being reported by the USDM, as well as stream flows and river flows drying up to the 10th percentile of their historical averages for this time of year.
Browning and stressed vegetation is being reported across the area, with many farmers having to resort to supplemental feeding of livestock due to reduced availability of plants to eat.
Loss of yield for farmers remains “a large concern,” according to federal officials.
Jeff Kirwan, who owns a farm in northwestern Illinois, says that he hasn’t seen rain in more than a month.
“We went five weeks, almost six weeks without rain, and it’s starting to really affect our crops,” Kirwan said, panning his camera across a field rife with cracked soil and browning crops. “Nutrient deficiencies are showing up because the ground is so dry."
"We’ve been optimistic," Kirwan added, but it’s to the point now where we’re seeing real significant damage to our crop."
