ESPN analytics projects how Bears' season will unfold originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago
ESPN has updated its Football Power Index, or FPI, for the 2023 NFL season, and according to their analytics, the Bears have an uphill battle to make the playoffs this year.
ESPN’s FPI aims to measure a team’s strength relative to the rest of the league, and project how a team will fare as the season advances. Each team is given a number score, which represents the expected point margin for that team, against an average opponent at a neutral site.
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Currently, the Bears have a -2.4 FPI, meaning they’re projected to lose by just less than a field goal to an average opponent. That’s tied for 23rd in the league.
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The index has the Bears' record at 7.8-9.2, which would place them below the Detroit Lions (9.4-7.6 projected record) and the Minnesota Vikings (8.6-8.3 projection). Yet, the Bears have projected a higher finish than the Green Bay Packers (7.4-9.6).
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The projections also aim to dictate the Bears', and every other team's, odds of making the playoffs, winning their respective division, qualifying for the divisional and conference playoff rounds and their Super Bowl odds.
For the Bears, ESPN projects a 34.2 percent chance of making the playoffs, a 15.9 percent chance of winning the NFC North, a 15.1 percent chance of advancing to the second round, a 5.7 chance of making the NFC championship game, a 2.1 percent chance of earning a spot in the Super Bowl and a 0.6 percent chance of winning the whole thing.
As it stands, the Philadelphia Eagles have the best shot at winning the Super Bowl with a 13.9 percent chance, according to ESPN's analytics. Unsurprisingly, they have the best odds of making the NFC championship game with an over 40 percent shot.
What would define a successful season for the Bears? How accurate are these projections?
Looking at ESPN's projections, they are relatively fair to the roster Ryan Poles and company have assembled this offseason. While they made some headline-worthy moves by trading for DJ Moore and signing linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards, they're still at the early stages of their rebuild.
Bears fans should not anticipate the team making the playoffs. If they did, it would mark a widely successful season, based on the roster they have in place. This season will markedly be another evaluation of Justin Fields and the returning, veteran pieces who withstood the jettisoning phase of the rebuild.
As it relates to the last part, those included in that group include Cole Kmet, Jaylon Johnson, Darnell Mooney -- all of whom are extension eligible this offseason -- Chase Claypool, Teven Jenkins, Eddie Jackson, Kyler Gordon, Jaquan Brisker, etc.
The Bears have a long way to go before they can consider themselves viable contenders for the Super Bowl. But, this season will prove imperative to the coaching staff and the front office. They can decide in another direction next offseason based on how this season fares.
