The length of a papal conclave is as hard to predict as the person it will eventually choose to be the next pope. But if recent trends continue, Catholics could have their new leader within two days.
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WATCH HEREWith cardinals already gathered in Vatican City following the death of Pope Francis, pre-conclave discussions among them could speed up the voting process that starts May 7 in the Sistine Chapel.
"It looks like in the last century, it's been trending downward," said NBC Chicago's Chuck Goudie, who has covered the Catholic Church for over 30 years, on this week's episode of "The Takeaway."
"A hundred years ago, the average was about five days. Lately, it's been two or three days."
Four out of the last five papal conclaves finished with a selection in three days or less. In 2013, Pope Francis was chosen on the fifth ballot, which came on the second day.
In 2005, Pope Benedict was chosen on the fourth ballot, which also came on the second day.
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"Before the actual secrecy of the conclave begins, there's the pre-conclave," said NBC Chicago's Mary Ann Ahern, who has reported on conclaves that elected Pope Benedict and Pope Francis. "They've actually been meeting since his death. They've been talking about the health of the church. …They've been getting to know each other."
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SIGN UP Of the over 200 cardinals in the Catholic Church, 133 will be part of the voting group in this conclave. Cardinals need to reach a two-thirds majority on a ballot to elect a new pope.
"There is some sense going into the closed door session of how this is going to play out," said Goudie. "Could this be a day, or less?"
Every conclave comes with a measure of unfamiliarity. That's likely to be true among this group, with Pope Francis recently elevating many of the men who will choose his successor.
"Some of them don't even know each other," said Ahern. "It's kind of like the big family reunion where you say, 'Oh, that's my cousin I've never met before.'"
Once the conclave begins, there is no contact with the outside world. As has been tradition for hundreds of years, cardinals assembled inside the Sistine Chapel next week must decide who will lead the estimated 1.4 billion Catholics relying solely on their own judgement and influence.
"Anybody who says they know how this is going to work, I think, is a liar or maybe should go to confession," said Goudie.
