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Chicago's status as third-largest city could be in jeopardy as another city grows

Chicago has been fighting to maintain its status as the third-largest in the U.S., but its largest competitor saw even more growth

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NOTE: The video in the player above is a report from 2023.

The battle over the title of third-largest city in the U.S. continues as new estimates from the Census Bureau shows a change in numbers that could threaten Chicago's status.

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The Windy City saw some improvement when it came to population growth over the last year, but data showed another city is also growing -- and at a faster rate.

According to the numbers, Chicago saw an increase in population between July 1, 2023, and July 1, 2024, marking a reversal from 2023's decline. That puts the city's new total at 2,721,308, up from 2023's 2,664,452.

The city has been fighting to maintain its status as the third-largest in the U.S. -- and its largest competitor saw even more growth than Chicago in that same time frame.

According to the Census, Houston grew to 2,390,125 as of July 1, 2024. That's up from 2023's 2,314,157.

From 2022 to 2023 the gap between Houston and Chicago dropped to around 350,000. But from 2023 to 2024, Chicago's lead dropped to around 330,000.

“Many population growth rates reversed or saw major changes between 2023 and 2024,” Crystal Delbé, a statistician in the Census Bureau’s Population Division, said in a statement. “Cities in the Northeast that had experienced population declines in 2023 are now experiencing significant population growth, on average. In fact, cities of all sizes, in all regions, showed faster growth and larger gains than in 2023, except for small cities in the South, whose average population growth rate remained the same.”

Both New York and Los Angeles remain the No. 1 and No. 2 cities when it comes to population size in the U.S., with populations of 8,478,072 and 3,878,704, respectively.

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Houston has been just behind Chicago in population numbers for several years and continues to grow in size.

In 2015, experts predicted Houston could overtake Chicago as the third-largest city by 2025. At that time, estimates suggested Houston’s population could be between 2.54 million and 2.7 million by 2025, while Chicago would be around 2.5 million.

Last year, an analysis from the Illinois Policy Institute predicted Chicago would be overtaken by Houston by 2035 "if population trends hold."

The Census Bureau cautioned that data collected for 2023 did not include an influx of asylum-seekers who arrived in the city after the administration of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott began busing them northward to Chicago. It was not clear if those migrants were included in 2024's data.

According to the data, the Midwest grew overall from 2023 to 2024.

"The Midwest showed modest population growth, with average rates varying by population size," the Census report stated. "Places with fewer than 5,000 residents saw an average growth of 0.1%. Those with populations between 5,000 and 9,999 recorded a 0.6% average increase, while cities and towns with 10,000 to 49,999 residents grew by an average of 0.7% — the same rate observed in places with populations of 50,000 or more."

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