Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker is aiming to secure a second term in office this week, but Republican State Sen. Darren Bailey is hoping to deny him that opportunity as a heated race between the two contenders comes down to the wire.
On Monday, both candidates made their final pitches to voters, with Pritzker addressing labor groups in Springfield and Bailey campaigning in Chicago and the suburbs.
Pritzker, who has been favored by polls and national pundits to win reelection, says he believes he has the momentum to win a second term.
“You all remember in 2018 together we crushed the anti-worker Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner by the largest margin of victory against any incumbent governor in the history of our state,” Pritzker said at a labor rally in Springfield. “And we’re going to do it again on Tuesday against Darren Bailey.”
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Bailey meanwhile closed his campaign by offering a prediction that Pritzker would reinstitute COVID vaccine mandates after the election, coming full-circle on the issue that put him on the state political radar in the first place, criticizing the governor's handling of the pandemic.
"It’s fitting and proper (to focus on COVID), and it shows this terrible message of JB Pritzker," Bailey said. "This man won’t change. He has no desire to change or right the ship."
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A spokesperson for Pritzker says that the governor "has no plans to update the vaccine requirements" in the state.
As for Pritzker's confidence in a large victory over Bailey, political strategist Thom Serafin says he thinks the final margin will be in the single-digits.
"I’d be surprised. The race is somewhere between four and eight points right now,” he said.
Pritzker has poured millions of dollars of his personal fortune into the race, touting his record on improving Illinois’ economic outlook while balancing the state’s budget and paying off its backlog of bills.
For his part, Bailey received significant financial backing from billionaire Dick Uihlein, who poured at least $50 million into political action committees that ran a series of attack ads against Pritzker.
Those ads largely focused on issues of crime in Illinois, with Pritzker’s administration blasted for its support of the “SAFE-T Act,” which Bailey argued would cause thousands of criminal defendants to be released from prison on “non-detainable offenses.”
Bailey also criticized Pritzker’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, having filed suit against the governor’s “stay-at-home” order in 2020. He argued that Pritzker was a “thief” that had robbed children of “precious memories” with his administration’s emphasis on virtual learning during the pandemic.
The governor has defended his handling of the pandemic, saying that Illinois outperformed most Midwestern states in terms of deaths and in terms of vaccinations against the virus.
Pritzker also has touted programs designed to help small business owners and homeowners during the pandemic.
In a poll of 1,000 registered voters conducted in October by the Illinois Broadcasters Association and Research America Inc., Pritzker held a large lead over Bailey, with 49.7% of the vote. Bailey had 27.7% of the vote, with 12.6% of respondents saying they were undecided.
Libertarian candidate Schott Schluter grabbed a solid share of votes in the Illinois Broadcasters Association poll, with 6.3% of respondents saying they would vote for his campaign.
Bailey's campaign questioned the sampling in the poll, and said that they saw the race tightening in their internal polling.
“We’re very confident that this is a close race and our data is showing it getting closer, and I don’t think JB Pritzker would be spending $100 million-plus if he thought this were a 20-point race,” Bailey strategist Mark Harris told NBC 5 after the IBA poll was released.
Real Clear Politics classifies the race as “Leans Democratic,” with three polls included in its data. The most recent poll was 1,000 likely voters surveyed by The Hill, with Pritzker holding a nine-point lead.
Previous polls conducted by the Chicago Tribune and WGN found Pritzker to have a double-digit lead.
FiveThirtyEight is even more bullish on Pritzker’s chances, classifying the seat as “Solidly Democratic” and saying that he wins in more than 99-of-100 simulations.
Nationwide, races have tightened in several key races, including in Arizona, Georgia and other battleground states ahead of the midterms. Republicans are seeking to gain control of both the House and the Senate, with control of the House seeming to be a likelihood in the eyes of Five Thirty Eight and others.
Republicans have held onto leads in several key gubernatorial races, including in Georgia and Arizona, while Democrats are holding the line in Minnesota and Colorado.
Polls will close at 7 p.m. Central time in Illinois.
