New Projection Has Cubs Finishing Dead Last in Division Race - NBC Chicago
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Chicago Baseball

New Projection Has Cubs Finishing Dead Last in Division Race

The Cubs won the division title in 2016 and 2017 and were a wild card team in 2015 and 2018

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    NEWSLETTERS

    Heyward Speaks to Media Ahead of Cubs Camp

    Cubs outfielder Jason Heyward speaks to media in Mesa as spring training gets underway. 

    (Published Wednesday, Feb. 13, 2019)

    What to Know

    • The Cubs are now projected to finish with 80 wins, good for last place in the NL Central.

    • The Cubs have outperformed their PECOTA projections in each of the last four seasons.

    When Baseball Prospectus’ new PECOTA projections came out last week, Chicago Cubs fans were surprised at how poorly the team fared in the eyes of the algorithm.

    Now, things have gone from bad to worse.

    According to a fresh update to the website, the Cubs are now projected to finish in dead last in the National League Central, with an 80-82 record and one of the worst run-prevention defenses and pitching staffs in the league.

    According to BP, the Cubs are projected to give up 743 runs, the second-highest total in the National League, and their Fielding Runs Above Average (a metric designed to show how good a team’s overall defnese is) is now at -12.2, the third-worst number in the National League and over 46 runs behind the Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers.

    Chicago Baseball: Spring Training in PhotosChicago Baseball: Spring Training in Photos

    The Cubs have reached the playoffs in each of the past four seasons, and have outperformed their PECOTA projections in each of those seasons. The Cubs won 95 games last season and finished as the top wild card team in the National League.

    Only three teams in the National League are projected to have fewer wins than the Cubs, including the lowly Miami Marlins, who have the low-record total of 68.

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