On April 2, President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on countries around the globe.

The list includes a blanket "10% tariffs on all countries," according to a White House memo, and higher rates on certain competitors, such as China, India and the European Union. That's on top of existing tariffs the administration had previously announced.

Tariffs are paid by importing companies, which can increase costs for businesses. Job cuts are one way American business leaders may attempt to control their costs.

The stock market has been in turmoil since the announcement. As of early afternoon Monday, the S&P 500 had fallen around 19% from its record high in February. The labor market could see similar volatility, experts say.

"If the president does not reverse course, he will increase the unemployment rate to recessionary levels," says Michael R. Strain, director of economic policy studies at the conservative think tank the American Enterprise Institute and professor at Georgetown University.

"Chicken Little 'expert' predictions didn't quite pan out during President Trump's first term," said White House spokesman Kush Desai, "and they're not going to pan out during his second term when President Trump again restores American Greatness from Main Street to Wall Street."

Here's what experts predict.

Unemployment rate could hit 4.7% by the end of 2025

More than a third, 37%, of CEOs said they expect to cut jobs this year, according to a CNBC survey of its CEO Council, which includes more than 100 CEOs in various industries. Some companies have already started layoffs: Car manufacturer Stellantis announced April 3 it was temporarily laying off 900 employees as a result of the president's tariffs.

The industries that will likely see the most immediate job cuts are "retail trade, wholesale trade and manufacturing," says Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Budget Lab at Yale University. Agriculture jobs may be similarly affected, says Harry Holzer, senior fellow at the Brookings Institute and professor of public policy at Georgetown University.

Companies whose products are entirely made in the U.S. could benefit: "At least in the short term, employment would likely rise there, because those folks will see more demand," says Holzer. That could mean cumulative hikes of tens of thousands or even a few hundred thousand jobs added in the next three or four months, he says.

But virtually "nothing is 100% made in the U.S.A. anymore," says Adam Hersh, senior economist at the pro-union Economic Policy Institute. "About 45% of the content of U.S.A. goods is from imports." About half, 52%, of what Americans purchased in 2023 was "made in America," according to the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Job losses will far outweigh gains, experts agree.

The Budget Lab at Yale calculated that Trump's tariffs will cut 2025 U.S. GDP growth by a percentage point. That could mean the unemployment rate goes up from its current 4.2% to 4.7% by the end of the year, says Tedeschi. That represents "roughly half a million people," he says.

The rise in unemployment could be even higher, according to Holzer's loose calculations: Job losses "could be in the millions," he says.

It's 'easy to see the negatives outweigh the positives'

In the long run, Tedeschi predicts another "200,000 to 300,000" fewer people in the labor market every year as a result of Trump's tariffs. That's before calculating the impact of the retaliatory tariffs economists believe other countries will place on U.S. products. "That's going to have big direct employment effects" as well, says Hersh.

Uncertainty about future policy changes could cause businesses to cut both roles in the near term and create fewer jobs down the line. "It's not just the substance of the tariffs that is so damaging," says Tedeschi. "It's the chaotic way in which they've been rolled out."

That's because, "when you don't know what the tariff rate is going to be an hour from now, let alone a week from now or a month from now or a year from now, how can you as a business hire and invest in that environment?" says Tedeschi.

Overall, when it comes to the tariffs and their impact on the U.S. job market, "it's pretty easy to see the negatives outweigh the positives," says Holzer.

Experts recommend staying calm and beefing up your emergency fund with six months or more of savings to cover a possible job loss.

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