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Dow rises for sixth straight day, closes at highest level in 2023: Live updates

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Dow rises for sixth straight day, closes at highest level in 2023: Live updates

Stocks were higher Monday as Wall Street braced for quarterly reports from some of the biggest companies in the world.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded added 76.32 points, or 0.22% to end at 34,585.35 — its highest closing level in 2023. The S&P 500 climbed 0.39% to finish the session at 4,522.79, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.93% to 14,244.95.

Shares of tech-giant Apple added 1.7%, while Tesla climbed 3.2%. Shares of JPMorgan Chase ticked up 2.4%.

The second-quarter earnings season{

S&P 500 earnings scorecard

Second-quarter earnings season is just getting started, but last week's results set the period off with a strong start even as estimates call for a roughly 7% decline in year-over-year earnings, according to FactSet.

While the season may only be in its early innings, about 6% of S&P 500 companies have reported second-quarter earnings, with 80% topping consensus EPS expectations, FactSet data shows. Of those that have reported, 67% have topped sales expectations.

— Samantha Subin

Bank of America, Morgan Stanley Goldman Sachs United Airlines Las Vegas Sands Tesla Netflix

Wall Street expects a gloomy season with lower profits. Analysts forecast a more than 7% decline in S&P 500 earnings from a year ago, according to FactSet.

This week also ushers in the Federal Reserve's "blackout period" ahead of its July policy meeting. Traders anticipate a roughly 97% chance the central bank increases interest rates later this month, after pausing hikes in June, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Stocks are coming off a winning week that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average gain 2.3% to notch its best weekly gain since March. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite added 2.4% and 3.3%, respectively.

"I think the market is kind of overjoyed with the disinflationary, soft landing scenario," Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research said on CNBC's "Squawk Box" Monday. "I've been thinking for quite some time that we're in a recession, but I argued that it's a rolling recession, not an economy-wide recession. Now I think we're in a rolling recovery."

The moves came on the heels of solid big bank earnings and softer inflation reports that lifted investor sentiment. That heightened some hopes the central bank may be able to tamp down inflation without tipping the economy into a recession.

Stocks close higher

Stocks closed higher on Monday as traders remain optimistic off of encouraging inflation data last week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 76.32 points or 0.2% to close at 34,585.35. The S&P 500 added 0.4% to finish the session at 4,522.79. The Nasdaq Composite climbed nearly 1% to 14,244.95.

— Brian Evans

Chocoholics lament: Cocoa outperforming almost every other commodity in 2023.

Cocoa is having one of those moments that make chocoholics wince.

So far this year, through Friday, cocoa futures in the U.S. are almost 29% higher, second only to orange juice futures (up 33.5%) in year-to-date performance among all commodities: energy, base and precious metals and foodstuffs. In June, cocoa prices reached a seven-year high.

Analysts at Citigroup on Monday raised their cocoa forecasts for the next six quarters, including 19% in the current third quarter, 23% in Q4 and another 22% in the first quarter of 2024. "Money managers continue to roll a hefty long position on the back of West African supply risks, [El Niño-Southern Oscillation] cycle weather premiums that could hit the region in 4Q, and still positive global demand which is weak but has not yet rolled over sufficiently to curtail prices," Citi wrote. "It seems unlikely ICE cocoa markets will sell-off meaningfully in 2H 2023."

Longer term, global climate change (higher temperatures, less rainfall) is expected to lessen the amount of land suitable to grow cocoa in West Africa, where the Ivory Coast could lose as much as 40% of its crop and Ghana 20% by mid-century. Higher prices eventually curb demand: Hershey is up about 3% in 2023, Nestle by 5.5% and Mondelez by 8% — all underperforming the S&P 500.

— Scott Schnipper, Gina Francolla, Christopher Hayes

JPMorgan's Kolanovic sees lower recession risk near term

JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic isn't as bullish as he was before.

The bank's strategist noted that, "while the growth lift from normalizing services demand and commodity prices should fade, the resilience of the US and global expansions should remain in place. ... We thus downplay near-term recession risks."

To be sure, he added that he remains skeptical "that a soft landing can be achieved in which inflation returns to central bank comfort zones on a sustained basis without a downturn."

Kolanivic has been a bear during this year's market rally. Earlier this month, he noted that "this benign and complacent pricing of recession risk, along with increasing signs that a credit cycle is emerging, makes us turn more negative on corporate bonds and more positive on government bonds."

— Fred Imbert, Michael Bloom

Goldman cuts recession probability

Goldman Sachs' Jan Hatzius lowered his recession projection to 20% from 25%, noting "the recent data have reinforced our confidence that bringing inflation down to an acceptable level will not require a recession."

The economist's comments come after two reports last week showed inflation rose less than expected, boosting the stock market. The S&P 500 had its biggest one-week gain since June last week.

The "US economic activity remains resilient, with Q2 GDP growth tracking 2.3%," Hatzius said. "We do expect some deceleration in the next couple of quarters, mostly because of sequentially slower real disposable personal income growth. ... But the easing in financial conditions, the rebound in the housing market, and the ongoing boom in factory building all suggest that the US economy will continue to grow, albeit at a below-trend pace."

— Fred Imbert, Michael Bloom

Crypto stocks have been outperforming bitcoin for the past month

Bitcoin has had no shortage of good news over the past month but still can't seem to move beyond the $30,000 level. Meanwhile, crypto equities have been outperforming the cryptocurrency.

Over the past month bitcoin has gained about 13%, according to Coin Metrics. In the same period, crypto exchange Coinbase has climbed 91%, bitcoin proxy Microstrategy has advanced 55%, and miners Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms are up 73% and 78%, respectively.

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani pointed out that this could be because crypto equities underperform in a downtrend and "can potentially outperform" in an uptrend, in a note Monday. He also suggested prices may have climbed due to a short squeeze coming from traditional investors.

"U.S based equity investors have been largely crypto bears, in view of the regulatory headwinds," he said. "Thus, when Blackrock and others filed for the BTC ETF, and this was followed by the unexpected favorable Ripple ruling, most equity investors were left surprised, leading to sharper moves with crypto related stocks than underlying crypto."

"We still don't see new capital entering the on-shore U.S. crypto market," he added. "We expect some of this momentum to pick up earliest by Q4'24 with some more evidence of institutional participation into the new crypto cycle or positive momentum on the ETFs."

— Tanaya Macheel

Tech software ETF reaches a new 52-week high

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF added 1.2% Monday, hitting a new 52-week high.

The ETF, which has targeted exposure to software, interactive media and related companies, has gained almost 42% in 2023. Meanwhile, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF also gained more than 1% as of Monday afternoon, amid a 56.3% year-to-date rally.

— Hakyung Kim

Cathie Wood writes down her Twitter stake by 47%, WSJ says

ARK Invest's Cathie Wood said she has written down her stake in Twitter by 47% since Elon Musk's buyout last year, the investor told The Wall Street Journal Monday. Ark owns a small stake in Twitter in the ARK Venture Fund.

Wood said she "absolutely" had to write it down because she takes fair valuation very seriously. However, she said she is still bullish on Twitter long term, and wants to buy more shares at these depressed levels.

— Yun Li

Goldman adds Baidu to conviction buy list

Baidu is one of the best positioned China internet companies pivoting to the secular generative artificial intelligence theme, Goldman Sachs said in a note Sunday. The firm added Baidu to its regional conviction buy list and boosted its price target to $197 per share, from $183, suggesting 32% upside from Friday's close.

Baidu's earnings will remain on an upward revision cycle, with room for valuation multiple expansion supported by a "lineup of upward catalysts," analyst Lincoln Kong wrote.

"We forecast Baidu to deliver healthy revenue growth and margin performance over a
multi-year investment cycle," he said. The company's A.I. cloud will benefit from structural growth opportunities from enterprise consumers and its ad margins will further improve, he noted.

U.S.-listed shares of Baidu are up about 30% year to date.

— Michelle Fox

Nvidia's huge 2023 rally can continue, Citi says

Don't expect Nvidia's shares to lose steam after rallying to all-time highs this year, Citi said.

Analyst Atif Malik raised his price target by $100 to $520 while maintaining his buy rating. Malik's target implies an upside of 14.4% over the next year.

And his bull case shows the potential for even more of an advance ahead at $600 per share.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more about his predictions for the stock and how they compare to the rest of Wall Street here.

— Alex Harring

Upside could be limited for PepsiCo as investors better appreciate strengths, Morgan Stanley warns

PepsiCo's good attributes are now fairly priced into the stock following its strong earnings report last week, according to Morgan Stanley. That could mean limited upside ahead for the food-and-drink maker.

Analyst Dara Mohsenian downgraded the food-and-beverage giant to equal weight from overweight. Still, his $210 price target implies shares have a potential upside of 11.6%.

"We typically like recommending names where we can point to discrete points the market is not pricing in," he said in a note to clients.

Read more about why Mohsenian thinks upside may be harder to find going forward for the stock here.

— Alex Harring

How the Nasdaq 100 rebalance impacts Megacap Tech

Details are starting to trickle out about the Nasdaq 100 rebalance, which will become effective on July 24.

According to Goldman Sachs, Nvidia and Microsoft are the stocks that will see the biggest downward adjustments as part of the rebalance, and Apple will be the largest stock in the group, but with a smaller weighting than it currently has.

Read more about the changes to the index and the potential impact on stocks at CNBC Pro.

— Jesse Pound

Ford cuts prices on F-150 Lightning pickup trucks, shares fall

Ford shares were down 5% after the automaker cut prices on its electric F-150 Lightning pickup trucks by as much as $10,000. That would be the stock's worst day since February.

But while this may be a negative for Ford, Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge sees it as a "big macro positive" for the market. He said this points to "improved supply chain conditions, lower input costs, higher output, and reduced consumer prices."

"This dichotomy (macro tailwinds but micro headwinds) gets to the heart of the dilemma facing investors right now," he said.

— Fred Imbert, Michael Bloom

Stocks making the biggest midday moves

Here are some of the names making big moves in midday trading:

To see more stocks moving in midday trading, read the full story here.

— Michelle Fox

More than 40 S&P 500 stocks hit fresh 52-week highs

The S&P 500 is up a modest 0.3% Monday morning, but 43 constituents in the broad-market index jumped to new 52-week highs, including a handful hitting their highest levels in decades.

Booking Holdings jumped to a high of $2,938.38, reaching all-time highs dating back to the travel stock's initial public offering in 1999.

Cintas popped to all-time highs dating back to its debut in 1983. The corporate uniform supplier touched a high of $503.70. Cintas posted a beat late last week, with fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of $3.33 per share on revenue of $2.28 billion.

Pest control giant Rollins touched a high of $44.78, an all-time high since it began trading on the New York Stock Exchange in 1968.

-Darla Mercado, Chris Hayes

Chewy climbs after Goldman Sachs upgrade

Chewy popped 0.2% on Monday after Goldman Sachs said shares of the pet e-commerce company could rally despite underperforming this year.

Analyst Eric Sheridan upgraded the stock to buy buy from neutral and raised his price target by $8 to $50. With this target, Sheridan implied the stock can rally 31.6% over the next year from where it ended Friday's session.

The stock has underperformed the S&P 500 this year, up just 2.5%.

"With shares underperforming the S&P by ~1000bps YTD, we view the stock as having an attractive risk/reward profile especially as the company pivots towards a narrative of returning to customer growth (last quarter of lapping pandemic cohort attrition) and as Chewy runs up against long-term margin targets," Sheridan said in a note to clients Monday.

CNBC Pro subscribers can click here to read more.

— Alex Harring

Ed Yardeni sees S&P 500 rising to a record as high as 5,400 over the next 18 months

Market veteran Ed Yardeni believes we are already in a new bull market and the S&P 500 could potentially climb nearly 20% in the next 18 months in the cycle.

The head of Yardeni Research said the bull run, which started on Oct. 12, 2022, when the S&P 500 bottomed, will continue through at least the end of 2024, pushing the equity benchmark to a record high somewhere between 4,800 and 5,400. His target range represents a gain of between 6.5% and 19.9% from the S&P 500′s Friday close of 4,505.42.

— Yun Li

Altcoins are lower following XRP led rally, bitcoin hovers at $30,000

Altcoins continued to give back gains as investors took some profit from Thursday's big crypto rally.

Except for bitcoin, cryptocurrencies across the market are down low single digit percentages adding to weekend losses. Ripple's XRP, which led the surge, is down almost 10% since Friday, according to Coin Metrics, after gaining more than 70% at one point Thursday. The tokens tied to Polygon and Cardano are down about 9% each and litecoin has lost 11%. Ether is down 4%.

Meanwhile, bitcoin remains flat at the same level it's been for a month despite a wave of positive developments and a 4% gain from the XRP-driven rally, which it lost the next day.

For more on why bitcoin can't seem to break out of the $30,000 read our full analysis here.

— Tanaya Macheel

Wells Fargo hikes Tesla price target

Wells Fargo upped its price target on shares of Tesla to $265 from $170 a share heading into earnings this week, but retained its equal weight rating as gross margins concerns linger.

"We are cautious about Q2 auto GM given price cuts, and we are concerned about volumes heading into 2H," wrote analyst Colin Langan.

The price change reflects about 6% downside from Friday's close, with the Wall Street firm expecting auto gross margins to fall 17.5% as a result of ongoing price cuts and weaker mix.

Langan is also bracing for a decline in Tesla's average selling price per unit in the second quarter.

Shares have surged more than 128% since the start of the year.

— Samantha Subin

Dow slips to kick off trading week

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked down Monday ahead of another week of key quarterly results.

The S&P 500 added 0.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.3%. The Dow fell 16 points or 0.1%.

Investors will look toward quarterly results from Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

-- Brian Evans

Tesla shares rise 2% after building its first Cybertruck

Tesla announced in a tweet Saturday that the company built its first Cybertruck at Gigafactory Texas, its manufacturing facility near Austin, Texas.

CEO Elon Musk first unveiled the Cybertruck in 2019. The company pushed back its production timing for almost two years, with Musk citing sourcing component shortages as the cause of the delays.

Tesla shares were up 2.1% Monday during premarket trading. The company is slated to announce its second-quarter earning Wednesday after the bell.

— Hakyung Kim

Manufacturing growth in New York area stalls, Fed survey shows

Manufacturing activity in the New York areas ground to a near-standstill in July, with nearly as many firms reporting expansion as contraction.

The New York Federal Reserve's Empire State Manufacturing Survey dropped 6 points to a reading of 1.1, representing the difference between companies seeing growth against contraction. Wall Street had been looking for a reading of zero, according to Dow Jones.

New orders were little changed at 3.3, while shipments fell 8.6 points and inventories declined 4.8 points to a reading of -10.8. There was some good news on inflation, with both the prices paid and received indexes falling more than 5 points.

—Jeff Cox

Stocks making the biggest premarket moves

Here are some of the names making moves before the bell:

To see more stocks moving in the premarket, read the full story here.

— Michelle Fox

Paramount stock slips after soft opening "Mission: Impossible"

Shares of Paramount Global fell 2.7% in premarket trading on Monday after the latest installment in the "Mission: Impossible" franchise underperformed expectations at the box office.

The newest film — "Dead Reckoning Part One" — earned $56.2 million domestically over the three-day weekend, which was below the $61 million opening for 2018's "Fallout," according to Variety.

"Dead Reckoning" did open earlier in the week than most blockbusters, making exact comparisons difficult. The movie earned $80 million over its first five days in the United States and is performing well overseas, notching roughly $235 million globally, according to Variety.

— Jesse Pound

Yelp rises 3% before the bell as Goldman Sachs turns bullish

Yelp advanced more than 3.3% in Monday premarket trading after Goldman Sachs got off the sidelines on the online advertising stock.

Analyst Eric Sheridan upgraded the stock to buy from neutral and raised his price target by $9 to $47. Sheridan's new target implies shares could rally 23.3% over Friday's close.

The upgrade comes "on the back of stable/rising local advertising trends, an analysis of the incremental margin opportunity and the potential for stable/increased shareholder returns in the years ahead," Sheridan said in a note to clients Monday.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read the full story here.

— Alex Harring

S&P 500 at a key technical level, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee

The S&P 500 closed last week at 4,505 after a lighter-than-expected U.S. inflation report raised hope that a recession may be avoidable. Fundstrat's Tom Lee, who called the softer-than-forecast report and subsequent market reaction, said Monday that's a key level to watch for the benchmark index.

"It's a 76% recovery [in terms of a] Fibonacci retracement from the 2022 highs to the lows. Now that we closed above it, I actually think the probabilities favor us going to the prior highs," Lee told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday. "4,505 essentially becomes support now."

The S&P 500 is 7% below 4,818.62, the intraday record reached in January 2022.

— Fred Imbert

Treasury yields fall as investors assess state of U.S. economy

U.S Treasury yields declined on Monday as investors considered the outlook for the economy and monetary policy after last week's lighter-than-expected consumer and wholesale inflation prints. Few key economic data reports are slated for this week as attention turns to the Fed's next rate-setting meeting later this month.

At 4:30 a.m. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was trading more than two basis points lower at 3.7970%. The 2-year Treasury yield was down by over one basis point to 4.7318%.

— Sophie Kiderlin

China's second quarter GDP grows 6.3%, slower than expected

China's second-quarter gross domestic product grew by 6.3% from a year ago, missing expectations compared to the 7.3% forecast by analysts polled by Reuters

The 6.3% GDP print for the second quarter marked a 0.8% pace of growth from the first quarter, slower than the 2.2% quarter-on-quarter pace recorded in the first three months of the year.

Seperately, the unemployment rate among young people ages 16 to 24 was 21.3% in June, a new record.

— Evelyn Cheng

Hong Kong likely to cancel all trading sessions for Monday

Hong Kong markets are likely to be shut for the whole of Monday, after the city observatory forecast that the typhoon warning for Typhoon Talim will remain in force until 4 p.m. Hong Kong time.

The Hong Kong Exchange usually cancels the morning trading sessions if the typhoon signal is No. 8 or above after 9 a.m., and all trading sessions for the day will be cancelled if signal No. 8 or above remains in force by noon.

— Lim Hui Jie

Singapore non-oil domestic exports contracts for ninth straight month

Singapore's non-oil domestic exports fell 15.5% year on year in June, marking the ninth straight month that such exports have remained in contraction territory.

This was a deeper fall than the 14.8% drop recorded in May, but slightly less than the 15.8% fall expected by economists polled by Reuters.

Enterprise Singapore, Singapore's enterprise development agency elaborated that the fall in non-oil domestic exports were due to weaker exports to Malaysia, Indonesia and South Korea, although exports to Hong Kong and China rose.

— Lim Hui Jie

United Airlines reaches preliminary labor deal

Shares of United Airlines were marginally higher in overnight trading after pilots reach a preliminary deal with the company to hike pay by up to 40% over four years.

The deal, announced Saturday, comes months after Delta Air Lines reached a new contract agreement.

— Leslie Josephs, Samantha Subin

S&P 500 earnings scorecard

Second-quarter earnings season is just getting started, but last week's results set the period off with a strong start even as estimates call for a roughly 7% decline in year-over-year earnings, according to FactSet.

While the season may only be in its early innings, about 6% of S&P 500 companies have reported second-quarter earnings, with 80% topping consensus EPS expectations, FactSet data shows. Of those that have reported, 67% have topped sales expectations.

— Samantha Subin

Stock futures open little changed

U.S. stock futures opened little changed on Sunday evening.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 20 points, or 0.06%, while S&P 500 futures slipped 0.06%. Futures connected to the Nasdaq 100 inched 0.07% lower.

— Samantha Subin

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