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Kelly Evans: So many deadlines!

CNBC’s Kelly Evans
CNBC

There's a palpable sigh of relief in markets this morning, with stocks generally higher and bond yields down. Why? Because we didn't get any big "60% tariff on China" announcements on President Trump's second day one. 

The flipside is that we do now face a series of deadlines--probably rolling deadlines, knowing the president's style--that markets will have to contend with. Most notably, the new Feb. 1 deadline for possible 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. The president mentioned he's thinking about this to the media yesterday while signing dozens of executive orders.  

Deutsche Bank says actual such tariffs would raise inflation by 1.4 points if fully passed along to U.S. consumers, or half that amount if they're only 50% passed along. "It's clear [markets] are not fully pricing in these tariff threats," and dismissing them as a negotiating point, or else yields would be stickier, analyst Jim Reid wrote.  

Then there's TikTok. One of the president's executive orders was to instruct the U.S. attorney general to abstain for 75 days from enforcing the law criminalizing its hosting and distribution. It's unclear if that will actually protect Apple and Google from allowing access in their app stores right now; it may well not

While the legal drama plays out, that puts the new deadline--which could turn into a larger negotiation on Chinese tariffs, as Trump said yesterday--into the first week of April.  

And that's not all! Lost in the inauguration shuffle was the fact that we have now hit the debt ceiling (remember the failed effort to extend it last month?), and starting today, are using extraordinary measures to pay interest on our debt. Granted, this could last four to eight months, as it has in the past, so the bond market for now is shrugging it off. 

In fact, spending down the $641 billion in the Treasury's Fed account to get through this period could quietly act as a form of economic stimulus, as Dan Clifton of Strategas has pointed out in the past. The optimistic view, as Ed Yardeni wrote, is that with full GOP control of D.C., "Congress should be able to raise or abolish the debt ceiling in short order."  

Which brings us to March 14th. That's the new government shutdown date, after Congress agreed to a short-term funding bill last. And yes, the GOP has full control of both houses--but their 219 seats in the House is the narrowest majority since 1931, and they're losing Reps. Walz and Stefanik to the Trump administration. That means they can't lose a single vote until spring special elections help fill the three open seats.  

And this is while Congress is potentially working on the "one Beautiful Bill," or two separate bills, that ultimately have to extend Trump's tax cuts before December 31--perhaps the biggest deadline hanging over the new president. New Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned Congress last week of "economic calamity" if they aren't extended by then, which tells you the urgency they feel on this matter.  

So, in summary:

-Today: debt ceiling hit. 

-Feb. 1: Mexico/Canada tariffs could go into effect. 

-March 14th: government shutdown without a new funding bill. 

-First week of April: TikTok ban enforced again. 

-December 31: Trump tax cuts expire.  

See you at 1 p.m! 

Kelly 

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Twitter: @KellyCNBC

Instagram: @realkellyevans

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