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10-year Treasury yield falls as traders await Fed rate decision

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JANUARY 22: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on January 22, 2024 in New York City. The Dow Jones and S&P both hit all time highs with the Dow Jones closing over 38,000 points for the first time ever as stocks continue to rise.
 (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The 10-year Treasury yield was lower Tuesday as the first Federal Reserve policy meeting of 2024 kicked off and traders parsed through fresh economic data.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by 3 basis points at 4.060%. the 2-year Treasury yield was higher by 3.9 basis points at 4.36%.

Yields and prices have an inverted relationship and one basis point equals 0.01%.

The Fed's January meeting began Tuesday and concludes with a fresh interest rate decision and guidance on the outlook for monetary policy on Wednesday.

At the Fed's last meeting in December, policymakers indicated that they were expecting three rate cuts in 2024, but minutes from the meeting showed that the path ahead for monetary policy remained highly uncertain.

Traders were last pricing in an almost 50-50 chance of rates being held steady or being cut at the next Fed meeting in March, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence Index ticked up to 114.8 in January, its highest level since December 2021. However, that was just below a Dow Jones estimate of 115. Elsewhere, job openings stood at 9.02 million in December, the the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday, while economist polled by Dow Jones forecast 8.8 million.

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