With less than 24 hours to go, Chicago's 2023 Mayoral Election is appearing tighter and tighter, as one latest poll shows one candidate in the lead, three others battling for a second place spot, and a runoff likely.
The latest poll, conducted by 1983 Labs, shows former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas in the lead, battling incumbent Mayor Lori Lightfoot, Rep. Jesús ‘Chuy’ García and Cook County commissioner Brandon Johnson in a runoff.
The independent poll had a sample size of 1,458 residents who were "registered, likely voters in Chicago," 1983 Labs says.
As mail-in and early voting ballots continue to roll in, Incumbent Mayor Lori Lightfoot this weekend as well as other candidates focused on their opponents as they hoped to gain last-minute support.
"I’m going to give you 800 million reasons not to vote for Brandon Johnson, and it’s precisely the size of the taxes that he wants to put on your head when he becomes mayor," Lightfoot said.
Lightfoot also took aim at Paul Vallas, the former Chicago Public Schools CEO, who has faced recent criticism for offensive posts liked by his Twitter account. Vallas has blamed unnamed hackers for liking the posts, according to The Chicago Tribune.
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"First it was an intern did it, that must have been what happened, then last night he said no, no, no, I was hacked. By who? The Russians Paul?" Lightfoot said.
Vallas, through a spokesperson, released the following statement to NBC 5 late Saturday:
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""I do not personally manage the campaign's Twitter account and was shocked when this was brought to my attention because this kind of abhorrent and vile rhetoric does not represent me or my views," he said. "While I had nothing to do with liking these posts, our campaign takes responsibility and apologizes, and we want it to be clear that we have already taken immediate steps to restrict access to the account to prevent anything like this from happening again. We are working on identifying who is responsible for liking these tweets as many volunteers have had access to the account in recent years, including some who are no longer with the campaign, and will take immediate action in removing them from our campaign if they are still involved."
At an event in Little Village, Vallas didn't discuss the controversy, but focused on his plans for the Chicago Police Department.
"We will recruit officers from within the community and while we will support our police officers with humane work and schedules... we will support our police officers when they respond to calls so that they can arrest criminals," he said.
The latest polls show Vallas as the frontrunner, with his opponents battling for a second spot in the anticipated runoff election.
"No one has held the record that I’ve had, no one has been active in dismantling some of the bad politics, and no one has helped built a new bench of leaders for the future as I have," said Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García.
Johnson recently thanked his supporters, saying he believes the momentum is on his side.
"Our movement is on the front page of papers across this city," he said. "Our movement is streaming across the world right now, that a better, stronger, safer Chicago is just moments away."
Whether you've cast your ballot for the election or not, here's a breakdown of what to know ahead of Election Day on Feb. 28.
Chicago Mayoral Candidates
The nine candidates running for Chicago mayor are: Ja’Mal Green, Ald. Sophia King, State Rep. Kam Buckner, Willie Wilson, Brandon Johnson, Paul Vallas, Mayor Lori Lightfoot, Ald. Roderick Sawyer and Rep. Jesús ‘Chuy’ García.
Details on each candidate and where they stand on major issues can be found here.
What Will it Take to Force a Runoff Election?
If no candidate gets the required 50% majority of the vote, a runoff election will follow with the top two vote-getters. That election is slated to take place on April 4, if necessary.
MORE: Could Chicago Mayoral Election Count Last Well Into March? Experts Weigh In
Current Voter Turnout
There's a chance that voters may not even know which two candidates would be in a runoff for some time after Election Day.
“It might take some time after election night to call some of these races, even the mayor’s race,” Max Bever of the Chicago Board of Elections told NBC Chicago.
Election attorney Burt Odelson agrees.
“It’s very, very possible that we could have discovery recounts to see who comes in second, to see who is entitled to run on April 4,” he says.
MORE: With Large Number of Mail-In Ballots, Full Results May Not Be On Election Night
Several factors could be at play, with the first being how closely-contested the race has become. There are a good number of candidates who have paths into the top-two spots in voting, which would then qualify them for the April 4 head-to-head runoff in the race.
What’s more, mail-in ballots, which are far outpacing any previous mayoral election in Chicago, could be key. Those ballots can be submitted until midnight on Election Day, and so long as they are postmarked by Feb. 28, they can be counted as long as they are received by March 14.
According to a Feb. 26 update from the Chicago Board of Elections, 211,110 ballots have been cast. Of those, 102, 071 are mail in ballots. However, with vote-by-mail applications at more than 200,000, "thousands" more mail-in ballots are expected to arrive over the next few days, elections officials say.
Under Chicago election law, mail-in ballots can be counted if they are received by March 14, and as a result, some candidates may petition for a recount of votes if they are close enough to believe that they still may qualify for the April 4 runoff when all is said and done.
Results in the election are due to be certified by March 21, and if a candidate finishes within 5% of the top-two spots in the race, then they would be legally allowed to request a recount, according to election experts.
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That condensed timeframe would not only mean that Chicago voters may not know who will be on their ballots for the runoff until just weeks prior to the vote, but also would mean that candidates wouldn’t have much time to fundraise, run advertisements and push for votes in that limited turnaround time.
What The Latest Polls Shows
While former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas appears to have the momentum to punch a ticket into a run-off for the mayoral election next week, new data suggests a heated three-way battle for the second spot.
One poll, conducted by M3 Strategies last week, shows Vallas ahead with 32% of the vote, but the next three candidates are well within striking distance of a second-place finish, and a spot in an April 4 runoff.
Here are the top-five finishers in that poll:
Paul Vallas – 32%
Brandon Johnson – 18%
Lori Lightfoot – 13.6%
Jesús “Chuy” García – 11.6%
Willie Wilson – 6.4%
The two key numbers in that poll are the margin of error, which stands at 4.6%, and the undecided voters, which comprised 14% of respondents.
The poll was conducted among 450 “likely” voters on Feb. 20 and 21, according to officials.
Johnson may have a 4.4% lead on Lightfoot in that polling, but it’s still within the margin of error, with García close behind.
When undecided voters were compelled to choose a candidate in the race, it tightened even more. Johnson saw his vote share rise to 20%, but his lead over Lightfoot narrowed, as she rose to 18%. García also saw gains, moving up to 13%.
MORE: How the Upcoming Chicago Mayoral Election Could Impact Future of Soldier Field
A more recent poll from 1983 Labs shows similar results:
Paul Vallas -- 24%
Lori Lightfoot-- 17%
Jesús “Chuy” García – 16%
Brandon Johnson -- 15%
Willie Wilson -- 12%
Why Might This Election Be Historic?
Mayor Lori Lightfoot secured her spot in history when she became the first out and Black female leader of Chicago.
While Lightfoot has consistently remained among the top contenders in the packed group when it comes to recent polling, her bid for reelection is faced with much uncertainty.
Now, with the mayor of the third-largest U.S. city facing the possibility of an early reelection defeat, the results of Feb. 28 could be historic once again, but this time in a very different way.
Should she fail to make it into the top two slots, Lightfoot would not only be the first Chicago mayor in decades to lose a run for reelection, but she would be the first Chicago mayor seeking reelection to fail to make it to a runoff.
Though the runoff system was introduced in 1999, the first-ever runoff election didn't actually happen until 2015, when incumbent Rahm Emanuel and Jesus "Chuy" García advanced to a second round.
Emanuel went on to win the runoff election that year.
"I feel very good about where we are," Lightfoot said earlier this week. "I feel very confident about the outcome. But I take nothing for granted and we've got to make sure that people turn up and vote. I'm not gonna leave anything to chance. We're running hard everywhere, doing our work to make sure that we are reaching voters, encouraging them to express themselves by going to the polls and voting."
For more on where candidates stand on issues, previous poll results, what candidates said during forums and more, visit our Chicago Mayoral Elections page.
Early Voting Locations
Authorities across Chicago have opened additional early voting sites for those seeking to cast ballots prior to Feb. 28.
And they're open for any Chicago voter to use.
"Any voter in Chicago can vote at any Early Voting site, no matter where they live in the city," the Chicago Board of Elections says. 'Voters can choose whatever voting site is most convenient for them, including on Election Day."
Here's' the full list of voting locations and hours.
Where Can I Vote on Election Day?
If you are choosing to vote on Election Day itself, but are unsure of where your polling place is, the process to find out might be easier than you think.
If you want to verify your polling place, then the Chicago Board of Elections operates a digital tool to allow you to do so.
Voters simply enter their address into the finder, then submit their name, and the lookup tool will find your current polling place.
A complete list of polling places by ward and precinct can also be found here.
All early voting locations, along with the city's election Supersite, at 191 N. Clark St., will be open on Election Day on Feb 28.
Registering to Vote
You can check to see if are registered to vote in Chicago by using this tool.
If you need to update your voter registration, you can do so in-person at an early voting site, at an Illinois Secretary of State's Drivers facility while obtaining a new driver's license, or online.
It's important to note, however, that if you wanted to complete the registration process online, the deadline to do so for the Feb. 28 election was Feb. 12.
Voting By Mail
While vote-by-mail is currently available for the Feb. 28 election, there are key dates to pay attention to, and certain steps you'll need to take in order to make sure your vote is counted. Here's a breakdown.
First, there are several different ways Chicago voters can return their mail-in ballots, which already comes complete with a postage-paid ballot return envelope:
- Through the U.S. Postal Service
- In a secure drop box at any Chicago Early Voting location before Election Day (note that early voting sites will have drop boxes, but Election Day precinct polling places will not)
- By personal delivery to the Election Board at 69 W. Washington, Sixth Floor
According to election officials, email confirmations are sent to voters after their ballot has been received, as well as when their ballot has been processed and counted.
The last day for vote-by-mail ballots to be postmarked is Feb. 28, the Board says. Additionally, any mail ballot postmarked Mar. 1 or later cannot be counted, as stated by law.
However, as long as a ballot is post marked by Feb. 28, the ballot has up until Mar. 14 to arrive at the Board in order to be counted in the election, officials say.
MORE: Here's When Your Chicago Election Mail-In Ballots Will be Counted
If you have requested a mail ballot but have not voted by mail, you may take your mail ballot to any early voting site, surrender the ballot, and then vote on a new ballot, in-person.
However, if a ballot has already been returned to the Board, "it cannot be retried of withdrawn."
"The same voter cannot vote in person in the polling place on Election Day unless he or she brings the mail ballot (or a portion of it) to the election judges OR completes an affidavit stating the mail ballot was never received by the voter or that it was received and lost," the Board says.
Here's a step-by-step guide to voting by mail.
What Else is on the Ballot?
Referendum questions
While referendums and ballot questions are a key component to any election, in the city of Chicago there will only be a limited number of queries posed to voters this February, and they will all be non-binding.
According to the Chicago Board of Elections, advisory referendums, such as the ones that will appear on select ballots on Feb. 28, are designed not to create or approve of laws, but rather “to solicit the opinion of voters on a question of public policy.”
Such referendums are non-binding, and are only intended to give officials an idea of what residents in a particular community are seeking to achieve.
Here are the questions, and which precincts will vote on them.
Chicago Police District Council
While residents are used to voting for citywide offices and for members of the City Council in off-year elections, this year’s ballot will include a new series of offices, as district councils will be elected in each of Chicago’s 22 police districts.
The new councils, formed as part of a City Council effort to improve police oversight and accountability, will consist of three individuals elected in each police district, according to officials. They will be elected every four years, on the same schedule as the mayoral and City Council races.
According to a city-run website, the councils will aim to build connections between police and communities, while also developing and implementing community policing initiatives.
Aldermanic races
While most of the attention has been focused on the nine candidates running for Chicago mayor, the Chicago City Council will also have a decidedly-new look in the new term, as a dozen incumbents aren’t running for reelection and several others are facing tough fights.
In all, 12 members of the City Council will not be seeking reelection, with several more defending seats that they’ve only recently been appointed to.
Just like in the mayoral election, if no candidate receives a majority of the votes in the Feb. 28 election, meaning 50% plus one additional vote, then the top two vote-getters would advance to a runoff, which will be held on April 4.
A full list of candidates can be found here.
