A new poll of more than 800 likely Chicago mayoral election voters found that former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas is holding a lead over Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson, and several key voting blocs could play a significant role in determining the outcome of the race.
The poll, conducted by Victory Research, asked 806 likely runoff voters about their preferences in the upcoming election, with Vallas collecting 44.9% of the vote. Johnson grabbed 39.1% of the vote, with 16% of respondents saying they are still undecided for the April 4 runoff.
The margin of error in the poll was 3.45%, with a mix of respondents on land lines and cell phones, according to the polling company.
Adding some intrigue to the proceedings was the number of voters who said that their choices could change. According to the poll, 18% of respondents said they could change their minds prior to Election Day, meaning that one-third of the voters either haven’t settled on a candidate or could move to the other in the two-man race.
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Victory Research also cited demographic data that showed two key groups that could help determine the outcome of the race. Voters living near the city’s lakefront, normally a key constituency in the race, are narrowly favoring Vallas by a 44-to-41 margin.
Latino voters could also play a pivotal role in the race, as the two candidates are in a virtual tie in that demographic, with Vallas ahead by a 39.9% to 38.3% margin.
As the two candidates prepare for the stretch run of the election, they continue to collect endorsements, with Vallas earning the support of 19th ward Ald. Matthew O’Shea over the weekend. Johnson meanwhile continued to consolidate support among labor unions when he picked up the support of AFSCME Council 31, but Vallas responded by taking down the endorsement of Plumbers Local 130.
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Early voting in the election is set to begin March 20, with the election itself taking place on April 4.
