Weekly Mayoral Odds - NBC Chicago
Ward Room
Covering Chicago's nine political influencers

Weekly Mayoral Odds



    Weekly Mayoral Odds
    Getty Images
    On Sept. 8, Mayor Daley announced he will not be seeking re-election for mayor, a position he's held since 1989.

    RAHM EMANUEL, 4-5 (UP): Emanuel had a great week. Bill Clinton gave him all the credit for the 1992 election. Then, he actually showed up at a debate with his rivals. This one was televised on WTTW, so it was worth his time. And, he busted out a few progressive ideas: lowering the sales tax by expanding the tax base to luxury items such as tanning and limo rides; extending the Red Line to 130th Street. And finally, he announced he’d raised $10.6 million before it became illegal to take a $50,000 donation from Steven Speilberg. That’s enough money to buy the mayoral election and an obedient City Council. In the latest Tribune poll, Emanuel has 44 percent, and leads in the black and Hispanic communities.

    GERY CHICO, 2-1 (UP): Chico got the endorsement of the Fraternal Order of Police by promising to put 2,000 cops on the street and (unlike Emanuel) not cut pensions. That provides him an 11,000-strong army of campaign workers, but it may also turn off voters who don’t like to see politicians selling out to public employee unions. Also, Chico nailed down the tough-guy vote by telling the story of how he beat up an eighth-grade bully on South Side, unlike that ballet dancer Rahm, who was picked on by his North Shore classmates because he had a great tan. Chico has $2.5 million on hand. That’s enough to compete in this race. Room to grow in the polls, since his name ID is lower than Emanuel or Moseley Braun, but needs to appeal to the black community, or he’ll have no chance in a runoff.

    CAROL MOSELEY BRAUN, 9-2 (DOWN): Remained the most uninhibited candidate in the race. When Bill Clinton campaigned for Rahm, she reminded him that the black community had stood by him during the Monica Lewinsky scandal. According to the Tribune poll, Moseley Braun has the highest negative rating in the field, at 30 percent, and is losing to Emanuel among African-American voters, 40-39, which indicates that not all of Danny Davis’s and James Meeks’s supporters moved over to the consensus black candidate. On the plus side, this campaign has been great publicity for Ambassador Organics, Moseley Braun’s struggling coffee and tea importing business. She’s been handing out free samples to journalists. Before she ran for mayor, did anyone know what Carol Moseley Braun had been doing the last decade?

    MIGUEL DEL VALLE, 50-1 (DOWN): Del Valle’s fundraising numbers are even worse than he predicted. Del Valle collected only $110,000 before the end of the year, meaning he has less than 1 percent of Emanuel’s money. To del Valle, though, the less money he has, the more qualified he is to be mayor. “We are funded by, and running for, the people of the city of Chicago--not special interests, not city contractors,” he says. Del Valle is stuck at 7 percent in the polls, but his presence in the race could guarantee this goes to a runoff, since Emanuel would pick up some of that support.

    PATRICIA WATKINS AND WILLIAM “DOCK” WALLS, 250-1 (NO CHANGE): Walls raised no money in the last half of 2010. He’s still the sharpest dresser on the ballot, though.


    ED BUS, 10,000-1 (DOWN): Bus didn’t raise any money, either, and his hard hat and short-sleeved dress shirt don’t make him a fashion plate.