Dan Rutherford says a Republican needs to win 20 percent of the vote in Chicago to win statewide -- and he’s the only Republican candidate for governor who’s done it, getting 20.6 in his successful run for state treasurer. To check his math, Ward Room took a look at statewide elections in this century, to find out how well winning Republicans fared in the city.
Republicans have won only four of the 23 statewide elections in this century. The worst Chicago showing for a winner was Sen. Mark Kirk’s 19.5 percent in 2010. (Kirk won statewide with 48 percent of the vote.) However, breaking 20 is no guarantee of victory. In 2002, Joe Birkett got 21.6% of the Chicago vote against Attorney General Lisa Madigan, who is more popular statewide than most Democrats. But as Rutherford suggests, it’s a good benchmark.
2012
Mitt Romney, President, 14.6% (LOST)
2010
Local
Mark Kirk, Senate, 19.5% (WON)
Bill Brady, Governor, 17.4% (LOST)
Steve Kim, Attorney General, 10.9% (LOST)
Robert Enriquez, Secretary of State, 9.9% (LOST)
Judy Baar Topinka, Comptroller, 27.2% (WON)
Dan Rutherford, Treasurer, 20.6% (WON)
2008
John McCain, President, 13.7% (LOST)
Steve Sauerberg, Senate, 9.9% (LOST)
2006
Judy Baar Topinka, Governor, 15.3% (LOST)
Stewart Umholtz, Attorney General, 6.8% (LOST)
Dan Rutherford, Secretary of State, 11.2% (LOST)
Carol Pankau, Comptroller, 8.7% (LOST)
Christine Radogno, Treasurer, 15.7% (LOST)
2004
George W. Bush, President, 18.2% (LOST)
Alan Keyes, Senate, 10.1% (LOST)
2002
Jim Durkin, Senate, 16.1% (LOST)
Jim Ryan, Governor, 18.8% (LOST)
Joe Birkett, Attorney General, 21.6% (LOST)
Kris O’Rourke Cohn, Secretary of State, 11.5% (LOST)
Thomas Ramsdell, Comptroller, 10.1% (LOST)
Judy Baar Topinka, Treasurer, 28.3% (WON)
2000
George W. Bush, President, 17.1% (LOST)
