Making Every Olympic Vote Count

By PHIL ROGERS

Updated 1:19 PM CST, Tue, Jul 28, 2009

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As Chicago's Olympic organizers head into the home stretch in their campaign for the 2016 Summer Games, they are making every attempt to target every vote possible.

It's an inexact science. But experts at the game of wooing IOC members know that certain regional biases can come into play. Especially in the first round of voting.

"The first round is the most dangerous round," says 2016 chairman Patrick Ryan. "Because people can vote regionally out of loyalty, even if they don't believe that that regional peer of theirs ought to win. They vote out of respect, and friendship."

It's a hazard, because after the first round, the city with the lowest number of votes is eliminated. Then the delegates immediately vote again. And they continue, round after round, until one city gets a clear majority. And that city is awarded the Games.

Thus, it's important to count up who might vote for whom, in that all-critical first round. "We have two Canadians in our region," notes Ryan. "And 23 Latin Americans; 50 Europeans; mid-20's Asians." Conventional wisdom says there is a danger for Chicago, that the Latin votes could all go for Rio de Janeiro, with many of the Europeans siding with Madrid, and the Asians voting for their continental neighbor, Tokyo.

For that reason, Chicago has been concentrating heavily on the votes of what might be considered independent nations. "We're focusing very much on the first round on African votes, Mideastern votes, which are not naturally aligned to a region," Ryan says. "The Middle East is technically a part of Asia, but you know the geography. The affinity is not as strong. But that is an issue in the first round."

It's the reason the next few days will be critical ones for the Chicago bid. 2016 organizers travel this weekend to Abuja, Nigeria, for the General Assembly of the Association of National Olympic Committees of Africa. The Chicago delegation will make a 15 minute presentation on Monday. But more critical is the opportunity to meet one on one with at least 16 voting members of the IOC from Africa.

It goes without saying that Chicago's competitors have their sights very much set on the same strategy. Madrid's mayor is making the trip, and says he will stress Spain's long historic and cultural connections to Africa. "Madrid has always had an Olympic soul," says mayor Alberto Ruiz-Gallardon. "The idea we want to transmit to the International Olympic Committee for our 2016 bid, is that our city is full of diversity, and that the spirit of our bid is to live the human values of the Olympic Movement.

In advance of the Nigerian meeting, Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva traveled to Sirte, Libya, where the attended the 13th Session of the Assembly of the African Union. "This marks my 10th visit to Africa," Lula said in a statement. "Brazil and Africa share many relevant historical ties, and over the years, African culture and traditions have become entwined in Brazil's own cultural fabric."

Rio's delegation to the African meeting will include soccer star Pele, who is still considered a superstar in the soccer-playing nations of Africa. "I enjoyed one of the greatest moments of my career in Nigeria," Pele said in a statement. "Of all the progress made in sport that I've seen in my career, the rise of football and athletics in Africa is one of the greatest."

Those familiar with the Olympic process say it's important to note the wild-cards that can become factors in the first round. For example, South Korea hopes to host the 2018 Winter Games. They might not want to see a successful Tokyo bid which could jeopardize their chances. The same could be true for France and Germany, who also have their eyes on the 2018 Games and might see a Madrid victory on the European continent as a negative.

Whatever the dynamics of the voting, veterans of the process know that the competition will heat up as the vote nears.

"This is not a U.S. political campaign, but I think the gloves are going to come off a little in the next couple of months," says 2016's Doug Arnot, who emphasizes that Chicago's delegation has made a point of staying on message. "I think we've done a very good job, and I think the city of Chicago and the people of Chicago have done a wonderful job of staying very positive. We're going to continue to play a positive message. If others choose not to, that's their choice."

But at the same time, Arnot says there's no denying that some tough talk can take place behind the scenes.

"It gets hardball, but it gets hardball more offline than online. It won't be so much in the press, as it will be in the one-on-one conversations that none of us are party to."