5. Rio Beats Madrid for the Latin Vote
According to observers, the best situation for Chicago would be if Tokyo loses the first round and Madrid and Rio split the Latin vote in the second, leaving Madrid on top. Worst case scenario: Rio beats Madrid, goes against Chicago in the final round, and the emotional appeal to send the games south wins over the IOC.
4. Articles Like This
Whether Chicagoans support the bid has been a hotly debated question in the local press. Assuming that local support is crucial to a bid's success, and assuming the IOC reads everything that's published about Chicago's bid (good and bad), Chicagoans may be perceived as hostile -- that doesn't help our cause, says Daley.
3. USOC and IOC political fighting
The USOC's ill-advised launch (then delay) of their own TV network, not to mention their generous TV rights fees, may have been detrimental to Chicago's cause. Lingering resentment could push the bid toward another city.
2. Rio's Map
If Obama's absence is Chicago's emotional play, then the heart of Rio's bid rests with a map that shows the location of every Olympic Games since 1896. Besides Africa, South America is the only populated continent that is not represented. When bid president Carlos Nuzman displayed the map at a SportAccord meeting in March, delegates erupted in applause.
1. Obama Doesn't Go He's going. Make that four ways Chicago might not win.
Some days, Chicago's speculation on Obama's appearance in Copenhagen sounds like we're smitten children picking daisy petals: "He loves us, he loves us not. He loves us, he loves us ... not." Unlike Tony Blair and Vladimir Putin before him, the presidential object of our affection may not make it to Denmark this Friday. He wrote a letter to IOC members and is sending Michelle and Arne Duncan in his stead, but appearing in person is like slipping a ring on Chicago's finger. Chicago would know, and so would the world.
Full Coverage: Chicago's Olympic Bid