Iowa

Iowa Republicans to Meet to Determine Fate of Straw Poll

Critics lament the poll's inaccuracy and lack of science, but the Republican Party of Iowa is likely to keep the tradition going

Republicans in Iowa are meeting to decide whether to carry on this summer with their presidential straw poll, a summer political tradition that critics decry as a sideshow.

Despite criticism from some prominent Republicans, including influential Gov. Terry Branstad, the Republican Party of Iowa's central committee appears likely to keep the event going when members meet Saturday morning in Des Moines to decide its fate.

Party Chairman Jeff Kaufmann said this week that he had "a hunch" committee members will vote to keep the poll.

First held in 1979, the straw poll has grown from a county GOP fundraiser stop to a large event on the Iowa State University campus, where candidates spend heavily to entertain supporters.

The poll has been a lackluster predictor of who will win the GOP nomination. Its winners in 1979 (George H.W. Bush), 1987 (Pat Robertson), 2007 (Mitt Romney) and 2011 (Michele Bachmann) did not win the nomination. Only twice — in 1995 (Bob Dole, who tied with Phil Gramm) and 1999 (George W. Bush) — did the straw poll winner go on to win the GOP nomination.

In 2011, about 17,000 people turned out — far less than the roughly 120,000 who voted in the January 2012 caucuses. Bachmann, a Minnesota congresswoman, spent $2 million on the event and won the poll, while Romney, the eventual nominee, chose not to participate. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty dropped out of the nomination race after a third-place finish.

The Republican National Committee provided the state party with an advisory opinion Thursday that said the straw poll appears permissible under new GOP rules, but the RNC stressed that the event is a fundraiser and the party must make clear that any vote is "unofficial and unscientific."

Supporters of the poll say it is one early way to gauge candidate strength, while critics say it is a costly event that can have an outsize impact on the race.

"The biggest problem I've seen with the straw poll is it is starting to serve as an artificial winnower. It drops people from the field who should stay in longer," said Republican strategist David Kochel.

Copyright AP - Associated Press
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