Cubs vs. Dodgers: First Thoughts on the NLCS

The Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers will square off in the National League Championship Series, but what can we expect from the series?

The Chicago Cubs clinched their spot in the next round of the postseason earlier this week, and now they finally know the identity of their next opponent as they will take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series.

The Dodgers had to come back in their series against the Washington Nationals to get to this point, and it was certainly an all-hands-on-deck effort to do so. Kenley Jansen, the team’s closer, threw over 50 pitches in the game as he pitched in parts of three innings, and starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw, fresh off a long outing on Wednesday, recorded the final two outs as the Dodgers beat the Nationals and moved on to their 13th League Championship Series.

As the Dodgers move on, they’ll hope that their strengths will cause some concerns on the part of the Cubs. While their rotation isn’t the greatest, they do feature pitchers with the potential to stymie the Cubs, including Rich Hill, who has a nasty curve ball that could prove to be a strong temptation for free-swingers like Jorge Soler and Kris Bryant.

Kent Maeda is also a very solid pitcher that hasn’t had the greatest of postseasons, but the likely Game 1 starter still has some quality pitches in his arsenal, and the Cubs’ offense hasn’t exactly proven itself through four postseason games thus far.

Then, of course, there is Kershaw. A pitcher that likely would have run away with the National League Cy Young Award had he not missed a big chunk of the season due to injury, the left-handed starter is just as dangerous as Madison Bumgarner and perhaps even more effective, mixing a mid-90’s fastball with a devastating curve ball and pinpoint command.

All of these starters are decent enough, but the team’s bullpen has been incredibly effective during the postseason. Jensen may not be available in Game 1 of the series after a lengthy outing in Game 5 against Washington, but he is a much more effective closer than Sergio Romo and could provide a much sterner test for the Cubs than the Giants’ bullpen could have hoped to offer.

Other pitchers like Joe Blanton and Pedro Baez have also looked great so far in the postseason, and with his handling of the bullpen on Thursday, it’s pretty clear that Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts has no qualms about using the best arms in the biggest situations against the Cubs.

Finally, there’s the matter of the Dodgers’ lineup. Loaded with sluggers like Adrian Gonzalez, there are also plenty of other players to keep an eye on as the series begins. Joc Pederson hit a big home run to get the Dodgers going on Thursday night, and he could be a thorn in the side for Cubs pitching during the series.

MVP candidate Corey Seager is a threat both at the plate and with his glove, and other players like Yasmany Grandal and Justin Turner could very well get hot in the right circumstances in the series.

While there are plenty of reasons for optimism if you’re a Dodgers fan, the Cubs will have plenty of people picking them to win the series, and with very good reason. Armed with a pitching rotation that they’ll be able to set however they want, and with a well-rested bullpen, the Cubs have no excuse to not be firing on all cylinders when the series begins, and they also have the critical edge of home-field advantage.

Normally the effects of home-field advantage are overstated, but when pitchers put up splits like Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks did this season at Wrigley Field, then those advantages take on a much more important hue, especially coupled with the fact that it’s completely unclear as to whom the Dodgers will start in those home games at the Friendly Confines.

The Cubs also have a lineup that seems to be settling into defined roles as the postseason wears on, and it all starts with two key players in the infield. Kris Bryant looks more comfortable during this playoff run than he did last year, and he had some key hits in the series win over the Giants, including a game-tying home run in Game 3 and the single that got the team’s improbable rally started in the ninth inning of Game 4.

Javier Baez has also proven his worth both at the plate, where he hit a home run in Game 1 and the game-winning single in Game 4, and with his glove, where he made several outstanding defensive plays and helped keep the Giants’ momentum to a minimum at multiple points during the series.

Even with those guys producing, the Cubs will still need to get more hitting out of players like Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist, with both guys getting off to sluggish starts in the Division Series. Rizzo is key as teams will likely start to pitch around Bryant in hopes of getting the first baseman to chase pitches out of the strike zone, and Zobrist’s ability to see a lot of pitches and draw walks both give the Cubs a huge edge in terms of knocking starting pitchers out of the game.

In the end, that’s what it’s going to come down to for the Cubs. If they can play to their identity, with strong starting pitching, elite defense, and an offense that wears down opposing pitching staffs, then there is very little that can stop them from reaching their first World Series in over 70 years. If any of those things break down, then it’s entirely possible that a talented team like the Dodgers could prolong that drought, and that’s one thing that Cubs fans certainly do not want to see this postseason.

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