Don’t expect a rematch of Pat Quinn and Bill Brady in next year’s governor’s race.
In fact, don’t expect either man on the ballot.
According to a new Crain’s/Ipsos Illinois poll, Attorney General Lisa Madigan leads Quinn among Democrats, 30 percent to 15 percent. A plurality of voters -- 39 percent -- is undecided. Quinn has been governor for four years, the equivalent of a full term. If, after all that time, he only has the support of 15 percent of his party, another year is unlikely to win over the rest. Unless he somehow finds that $8 billion we need to balance the budget.
Though Mr. Quinn trails Ms. Madigan by only 15 percentage points, his standing with voters has dropped in the past year.
Mr. Quinn's total approval rating is 18 percent now compared with 20 percent in May 2012, and his disapproval rating has risen to 51 percent from 43 percent. Just 6 percent of those surveyed strongly approve of how he's handling his job. Nearly five times as many, 28 percent, strongly disapprove.
The only positive spin for Quinn is that his predecessor, Rod Blagojevich, had a 9 percent approval rating at a similar point in his governorship. Blagojevich vowed he would “get the people to love me again.” He didn’t. It looks as though Pat Quinn is on his ninth political life.
Among Republicans, Brady is tied with state treasurer Dan Rutherford, 12 percent to 12 percent. As the last Republican nominee, Brady has more name recognition that Rutherford, so those numbers are not good for him. Wealthy dilettante Bruce Rauner has 6 percent, Rep. Aaron Schock 5 percent, and state Sen. Kirk Dillard 4 percent.
Rutherford remains the favorite on Ward Room’s line, still at 2-1 odds.
This post was originally published April 19, 2013.