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GOP Chair Thinks Congressional Candidates Can Sweep Table

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    NEWSLETTERS

    Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat Brady thinks he’s about to thwart House Speaker Michael Madigan’s plot to reverse the makeup of the state’s congressional delegation. After Democrats lost four House seats in 2010, Madigan drew a map designed to defeat four freshman Republicans. It was so skillfully gerrymandered that POLITICO declared Madigan had “punched his ticket to the partisan hall of fame.”    

    The Republicans, who have an 11-8 advantage in the delegation, are guaranteed to lose one seat, because representatives Donald Manzullo and Adam Kinzinger were drawn into the same district, the result of Illinois losing a seat in the 2010 census. (Kinzinger won the Republican primary, and will easily defeat Democrat Wanda Rohl.)

    Brady has now released a chart showing that Republicans have fundraising and/or polling advantages in the contested districts -- including the 12th District, which is currently held by retiring Democrat Jerry Costello, and would make up for the loss of Manzullo. 

                              Raised (Total/Third QTR)            Cash-on-Hand (9/30/12)       Most Recent Polling

    Walsh (R)            $1,826,322       ($258,794)                  $592,093                                    48

    Duckworth (D)      $3,998,592     ($1,491,665)                 $756,148                                    45
     

    Dold (R)               $3,929,860     ($1,005,258)                 $2,298,791                                 48

    Schneider (D)       $2,299,794     ($782,168)                    $267,625                                    45
     

    Biggert (R)           $2,368,529     ($622,191)                    $1,773,304                                  47

    Foster (D)            $2,339,848     ($641,583)                    $1,671,426                                  44

     

    Plummer (R)        $904,360        ($427,622)                    $232,904                                     44

    Enyart (D)           $602,370         ($424,380)                   $130,553                                      42
     

    Davis (R)             $983,828        ($542,987)                    $578,137                                      44

    Gill (D)                $858,069        ($431,288)                    $218,044                                      42

     

    Schilling (R)        $2,058,667     ($614,163)                    $839,150                                       51

    Bustos (D)          $1,774,355     ($488,803)                    $656,826                                       44

    “When Illinois Democrats adopted their hyper-partisan Congressional re-districting plan last year, pundits across the nation predicted Republican would lose several seats in the Land of Lincoln,” Brady said in a press release. “But recent independent polling combined with surprising resource advantages in the home stretch and an unmatched Republican “ground game” put the momentum squarely with Republicans in all six hotly contested Illinois races.”

    If Republicans sweep the table, they’ll end up with an 11-7 advantage in the delegation. That would be sweet revenge against Madigan. It would also mean that, in the unlikely event of an electoral college tie (an outcome fivethirtyeight.com currently says has a 1.1 percent chance of occurring), Illinois would cast its vote in the House of Representatives for Mitt Romney.